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No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "adjustedScore": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-11T11:35:23.093521+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Confirmed-absence passing/rushing human sensitivity; all conditional and overlap endpoints retained. Statistical player effect unestimated.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Tank Dell", "team": "Houston Texans", "side": "away", "condition": "confirmed unavailable", "replacement": "Jaylin Noel", "isolated_score": [ 20.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Jayden Higgins", "team": "Houston Texans", "side": "away", "condition": "confirmed unavailable", "replacement": "Kayshon Boutte", "isolated_score": [ 20.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Carnell Tate", "team": "Tennessee Titans", "side": "home", "condition": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement": "Calvin Ridley", "isolated_score": [ 23.96876480783313, 14.438668213071363 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.96876480783313, 14.438668213071363 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 557, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-09T00:15Z", "coefficient_sha256": "a5143d0e633899c7590cbfbe655051fd0e0d576540efbbaa1a051f1e5a1bb238" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "reason": "No comparable verified October10 prospective cohort." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 8.78765099789916, 36.78765099789916 ], "home": [ 6.493993821486928, 34.493993821486924 ], "team_allowance": 14, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Confirmed-absence passing/rushing human sensitivity; all conditional and overlap endpoints retained. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Confirmed-absence passing/rushing human sensitivity; all conditional and overlap endpoints retained. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.817065, 3.15853 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.817065, 3.15853 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.817065, 3.15853 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.7317, "pa": 3.13414, "official_team_id": 55, "official_team_name": "Seattle Kraken" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.18292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 15, "official_team_name": "Washington Capitals" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 14, "hits": 10, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.4535091567010681, 0.8827862135542308 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4165921428571429, "mean_margin_error": 2.057055714285714, "mean_total_error": 1.915935, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8170649999999999, 4.8170649999999995 ], "home": [ 1.1585299999999998, 5.15853 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.817065, 3.15853 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.817065, 3.15853 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.817065, 3.15853 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.7317, "pa": 3.13414, "official_team_id": 55, "official_team_name": "Seattle Kraken" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.18292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 15, "official_team_name": "Washington Capitals" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 14, "hits": 10, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.4535091567010681, 0.8827862135542308 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4165921428571429, "mean_margin_error": 2.057055714285714, "mean_total_error": 1.915935, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8170649999999999, 4.8170649999999995 ], "home": [ 1.1585299999999998, 5.15853 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 2.817065, 3.15853 ], "adjustedScore": [ 2.817065, 3.15853 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-11T11:35:23.093521+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 5.0, 3.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-11", "retrieved": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.957835+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-11", "official_event_id": 2026020084, "verified_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.957835+00:00", "scores": [ 5, 3 ], "status": "OFF / Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-11", "official_event_id": 2026020084, "verified_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.957835+00:00", "scores": [ 5, 3 ], "status": "OFF / Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892483", "before": { "date": "2026-10-11", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892483", "away": "Vancouver Canucks", "home": "New York Rangers", "startTime": "6:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-118) / -1.5 (-102)", "ml": "+215 / -265", "total": "5.5; O -135 / U +114", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/11/vancouver-canucks-new-york-rangers-401892483-october-11-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892483", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.423424+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.720356472795497, 3.5831144465290805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.720356472795497, 3.5831144465290805 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.720356472795497, 3.5831144465290805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.6815830392582907, 3.6520981275028364 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.6815830392582907, 3.6520981275028364 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.6815830392582907, 3.6520981275028364 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2856, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T02:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "c6d2cb2fc6f62655390ff9b94be16b8d31f0379d59dd3a086f78a3ed42769ada" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 14, "hits": 11, "accuracy": 0.7857142857142857, "wilson95": [ 0.524107694133997, 0.9242861328730683 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.430376724044748, "mean_margin_error": 1.9569071310806574, "mean_total_error": 1.9825652897290122, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.798775, 4.798775 ], "home": [ 1.3475549999999998, 5.347555 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.82926, "official_team_id": 23, "official_team_name": "Vancouver Canucks" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.86585, "pa": 3.03658, "official_team_id": 3, "official_team_name": "New York Rangers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 14, "hits": 10, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.4535091567010681, 0.8827862135542308 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4165921428571429, "mean_margin_error": 2.057055714285714, "mean_total_error": 1.915935, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.798775, 4.798775 ], "home": [ 1.3475549999999998, 5.347555 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "adjustedScore": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-11T11:35:23.093521+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-11", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892483", "away": "Vancouver Canucks", "home": "New York Rangers", "startTime": "6:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Vancouver Canucks 2, New York Rangers 6", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-118) / -1.5 (-102)", "ml": "+215 / -265", "total": "5.5; O -135 / U +114", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/11/vancouver-canucks-new-york-rangers-401892483-october-11-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892483", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.423424+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.720356472795497, 3.5831144465290805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.720356472795497, 3.5831144465290805 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.720356472795497, 3.5831144465290805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 2.6341463414634148, 3.8536585365853657 ], "current_rates": [ 3.6666666666666665, 4.833333333333333 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 2.902439024390244, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 2.8333333333333335, 1.8333333333333333 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 14, "hits": 11, "accuracy": 0.7857142857142857, "wilson95": [ 0.524107694133997, 0.9242861328730683 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4388250517598344, "mean_margin_error": 2.0072747815987477, "mean_total_error": 1.9703061404837652, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.798775, 4.798775 ], "home": [ 1.3475549999999998, 5.347555 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.6815830392582907, 3.6520981275028364 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.6815830392582907, 3.6520981275028364 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.6815830392582907, 3.6520981275028364 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2856, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T02:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "c6d2cb2fc6f62655390ff9b94be16b8d31f0379d59dd3a086f78a3ed42769ada" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 14, "hits": 11, "accuracy": 0.7857142857142857, "wilson95": [ 0.524107694133997, 0.9242861328730683 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.430376724044748, "mean_margin_error": 1.9569071310806574, "mean_total_error": 1.9825652897290122, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.798775, 4.798775 ], "home": [ 1.3475549999999998, 5.347555 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.82926, "official_team_id": 23, "official_team_name": "Vancouver Canucks" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.86585, "pa": 3.03658, "official_team_id": 3, "official_team_name": "New York Rangers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 14, "hits": 10, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.4535091567010681, 0.8827862135542308 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4165921428571429, "mean_margin_error": 2.057055714285714, "mean_total_error": 1.915935, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.798775, 4.798775 ], "home": [ 1.3475549999999998, 5.347555 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "adjustedScore": [ 2.798775, 3.347555 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-11T11:35:23.093521+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 2.0, 6.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-11", "retrieved": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.957835+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-11", "official_event_id": 2026020085, "verified_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.957835+00:00", "scores": [ 2, 6 ], "status": "OFF / Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-11", "official_event_id": 2026020085, "verified_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.957835+00:00", "scores": [ 2, 6 ], "status": "OFF / Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401898401", "before": { "date": "2026-10-11", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898401", "away": "Orlando Magic", "home": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "startTime": "6:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+5.5 (-110) / -5.5 (-110)", "ml": "+180 / -218", "total": "227.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 115.5 / 117.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/11/orlando-magic-cleveland-cavaliers-401898401-october-11-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.530241+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 114.07926829268294, 118.8170731707317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.07926829268294, 118.8170731707317 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.07926829268294, 118.8170731707317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 111.9572317002188, 116.0849643591359 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.9572317002188, 116.0849643591359 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.9572317002188, 116.0849643591359 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2798, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T02:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "09c476b9df38bcd47afb8bd9ed87f89c985594e96b11bfe4a014202d9eef1a23" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 7.708156408063465, "mean_margin_error": 9.175897649507124, "mean_total_error": 13.138614341129742, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 95.57926950000001, 135.5792695 ], "home": [ 97.310975, 137.31097499999998 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 115.57926950000001, 117.310975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.57926950000001, 117.310975 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.57926950000001, 117.310975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.743904, "pa": 115.10976 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.51219, "pa": 115.414635 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 5, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.35893445183261935, 0.9177810759959433 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.20557575, "mean_margin_error": 9.810105071428566, "mean_total_error": 13.820558642857142, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 95.57926950000001, 135.5792695 ], "home": [ 97.310975, 137.31097499999998 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 115.57926950000001, 117.310975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.57926950000001, 117.310975 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.57926950000001, 117.310975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.743904, "pa": 115.10976 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.51219, "pa": 115.414635 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 5, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.35893445183261935, 0.9177810759959433 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.20557575, "mean_margin_error": 9.810105071428566, "mean_total_error": 13.820558642857142, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 95.57926950000001, 135.5792695 ], "home": [ 97.310975, 137.31097499999998 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-11", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898401", "away": "Orlando Magic", "home": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "startTime": "6:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Orlando Magic 105, Cleveland Cavaliers 119", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+5.5 (-110) / -5.5 (-110)", "ml": "+180 / -218", "total": "227.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 115.5 / 117.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/11/orlando-magic-cleveland-cavaliers-401898401-october-11-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.530241+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 114.07926829268294, 118.8170731707317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.07926829268294, 118.8170731707317 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.07926829268294, 118.8170731707317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 111.9572317002188, 116.0849643591359 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.9572317002188, 116.0849643591359 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.9572317002188, 116.0849643591359 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2798, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T02:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "09c476b9df38bcd47afb8bd9ed87f89c985594e96b11bfe4a014202d9eef1a23" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 7.708156408063465, "mean_margin_error": 9.175897649507124, "mean_total_error": 13.138614341129742, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 95.57926950000001, 135.5792695 ], "home": [ 97.310975, 137.31097499999998 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 115.57926950000001, 117.310975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.57926950000001, 117.310975 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.57926950000001, 117.310975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 115.57926950000001, 117.310975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.57926950000001, 117.310975 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.57926950000001, 117.310975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.743904, "pa": 115.10976 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.51219, "pa": 115.414635 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 5, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.35893445183261935, 0.9177810759959433 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.20557575, "mean_margin_error": 9.810105071428566, "mean_total_error": 13.820558642857142, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 95.57926950000001, 135.5792695 ], "home": [ 97.310975, 137.31097499999998 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.3519590850332537, 2.6948278521867333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.3519590850332537, 2.6948278521867333 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.3519590850332537, 2.6948278521867333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2856, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T02:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "c6d2cb2fc6f62655390ff9b94be16b8d31f0379d59dd3a086f78a3ed42769ada" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 14, "hits": 11, "accuracy": 0.7857142857142857, "wilson95": [ 0.524107694133997, 0.9242861328730683 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.430376724044748, "mean_margin_error": 1.9569071310806574, "mean_total_error": 1.9825652897290122, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2317049999999998, 5.231705 ], "home": [ 0.9024299999999998, 4.90243 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12, "official_team_name": "Carolina Hurricanes" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4, "official_team_name": "Philadelphia Flyers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 14, "hits": 10, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.4535091567010681, 0.8827862135542308 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4165921428571429, "mean_margin_error": 2.057055714285714, "mean_total_error": 1.915935, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2317049999999998, 5.231705 ], "home": [ 0.9024299999999998, 4.90243 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12, "official_team_name": "Carolina Hurricanes" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4, "official_team_name": "Philadelphia Flyers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 14, "hits": 10, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.4535091567010681, 0.8827862135542308 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4165921428571429, "mean_margin_error": 2.057055714285714, "mean_total_error": 1.915935, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2317049999999998, 5.231705 ], "home": [ 0.9024299999999998, 4.90243 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-11T11:35:23.093521+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-11", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892484", "away": "Carolina Hurricanes", "home": "Philadelphia Flyers", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Carolina Hurricanes 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+142) / +1.5 (-170)", "ml": "-180 / +150", "total": "5.5; O -125 / U +105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/11/carolina-hurricanes-philadelphia-flyers-401892484-october-11-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892484", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.500182+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.331988742964352, 2.8406191369606 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.331988742964352, 2.8406191369606 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.331988742964352, 2.8406191369606 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.6097560975609757, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 3.8333333333333335, 2.6666666666666665 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.048780487804878, 2.9634146341463414 ], "current_rates": [ 1.1666666666666667, 4 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 14, "hits": 11, "accuracy": 0.7857142857142857, "wilson95": [ 0.524107694133997, 0.9242861328730683 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4388250517598344, "mean_margin_error": 2.0072747815987477, "mean_total_error": 1.9703061404837652, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2317049999999998, 5.231705 ], "home": [ 0.9024299999999998, 4.90243 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.3519590850332537, 2.6948278521867333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.3519590850332537, 2.6948278521867333 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.3519590850332537, 2.6948278521867333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2856, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T02:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "c6d2cb2fc6f62655390ff9b94be16b8d31f0379d59dd3a086f78a3ed42769ada" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 14, "hits": 11, "accuracy": 0.7857142857142857, "wilson95": [ 0.524107694133997, 0.9242861328730683 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.430376724044748, "mean_margin_error": 1.9569071310806574, "mean_total_error": 1.9825652897290122, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2317049999999998, 5.231705 ], "home": [ 0.9024299999999998, 4.90243 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12, "official_team_name": "Carolina Hurricanes" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4, "official_team_name": "Philadelphia Flyers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 14, "hits": 10, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.4535091567010681, 0.8827862135542308 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4165921428571429, "mean_margin_error": 2.057055714285714, "mean_total_error": 1.915935, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2317049999999998, 5.231705 ], "home": [ 0.9024299999999998, 4.90243 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12, "official_team_name": "Carolina Hurricanes" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4, "official_team_name": "Philadelphia Flyers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 14, "hits": 10, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.4535091567010681, 0.8827862135542308 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4165921428571429, "mean_margin_error": 2.057055714285714, "mean_total_error": 1.915935, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2317049999999998, 5.231705 ], "home": [ 0.9024299999999998, 4.90243 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.231705, 2.90243 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-11T11:35:23.093521+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 4.0, 1.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-11", "retrieved": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.957835+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-11", "official_event_id": 2026020086, "verified_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.957835+00:00", "scores": [ 4, 1 ], "status": "OFF / Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-11", "official_event_id": 2026020086, "verified_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.957835+00:00", "scores": [ 4, 1 ], "status": "OFF / Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401901821", "before": { "date": "2026-10-11", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401901821", "away": "Milwaukee Bucks", "home": "Charlotte Hornets", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+4.5 (-110) / -4.5 (-110)", "ml": "+150 / -180", "total": "221.5; O -112 / U -108", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 111.0 / 116.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/11/milwaukee-bucks-charlotte-hornets-401901821-october-11-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901821", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.542477+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 109.40853658536585, 117.92682926829269 ], "adjusted_score": [ 109.40853658536585, 117.92682926829269 ], "conditional_score": [ 109.40853658536585, 117.92682926829269 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 110.63414634146342, 116.84146341463415 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 116.01219512195122, 111.1829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 7.664450484866295, "mean_margin_error": 8.427637378783421, "mean_total_error": 13.825416649175098, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 90.90854, 130.90854000000002 ], "home": [ 96.42682500000001, 136.426825 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 108.42657806213404, 114.65531318147141 ], "adjusted_score": [ 108.42657806213404, 114.65531318147141 ], "conditional_score": [ 108.42657806213404, 114.65531318147141 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2798, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T02:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "09c476b9df38bcd47afb8bd9ed87f89c985594e96b11bfe4a014202d9eef1a23" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 7.708156408063465, "mean_margin_error": 9.175897649507124, "mean_total_error": 13.138614341129742, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 90.90854, 130.90854000000002 ], "home": [ 96.42682500000001, 136.426825 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 110.90854, 116.42682500000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.90854, 116.42682500000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.90854, 116.42682500000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 110.63415, "pa": 116.84146 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.01219, "pa": 111.18293 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 5, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.35893445183261935, 0.9177810759959433 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.20557575, "mean_margin_error": 9.810105071428566, "mean_total_error": 13.820558642857142, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 90.90854, 130.90854000000002 ], "home": [ 96.42682500000001, 136.426825 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 110.90854, 116.42682500000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.90854, 116.42682500000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.90854, 116.42682500000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 110.63415, "pa": 116.84146 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.01219, "pa": 111.18293 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 5, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.35893445183261935, 0.9177810759959433 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.20557575, "mean_margin_error": 9.810105071428566, "mean_total_error": 13.820558642857142, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 90.90854, 130.90854000000002 ], "home": [ 96.42682500000001, 136.426825 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 110.90854, 116.42682500000001 ], "adjustedScore": [ 110.90854, 116.42682500000001 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-11T11:35:23.093521+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-11", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401901821", "away": "Milwaukee Bucks", "home": "Charlotte Hornets", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Milwaukee Bucks 90, Charlotte Hornets 105", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+4.5 (-110) / -4.5 (-110)", "ml": "+150 / -180", "total": "221.5; O -112 / U -108", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 111.0 / 116.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/11/milwaukee-bucks-charlotte-hornets-401901821-october-11-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901821", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.542477+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 109.40853658536585, 117.92682926829269 ], "adjusted_score": [ 109.40853658536585, 117.92682926829269 ], "conditional_score": [ 109.40853658536585, 117.92682926829269 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 110.63414634146342, 116.84146341463415 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 116.01219512195122, 111.1829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 7.664450484866295, "mean_margin_error": 8.427637378783421, "mean_total_error": 13.825416649175098, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 90.90854, 130.90854000000002 ], "home": [ 96.42682500000001, 136.426825 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 108.42657806213404, 114.65531318147141 ], "adjusted_score": [ 108.42657806213404, 114.65531318147141 ], "conditional_score": [ 108.42657806213404, 114.65531318147141 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2798, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T02:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "09c476b9df38bcd47afb8bd9ed87f89c985594e96b11bfe4a014202d9eef1a23" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 7.708156408063465, "mean_margin_error": 9.175897649507124, "mean_total_error": 13.138614341129742, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 90.90854, 130.90854000000002 ], "home": [ 96.42682500000001, 136.426825 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 110.63415, "pa": 116.84146 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.01219, "pa": 111.18293 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 5, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.35893445183261935, 0.9177810759959433 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.20557575, "mean_margin_error": 9.810105071428566, "mean_total_error": 13.820558642857142, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 90.90854, 130.90854000000002 ], "home": [ 96.42682500000001, 136.426825 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 110.90854, 116.42682500000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.90854, 116.42682500000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.90854, 116.42682500000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-11", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761859", "away": "LA Galaxy", "home": "St. Louis CITY SC", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "LA Galaxy 2, St. Louis CITY SC 6", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-160) / -1.5 (+115)", "ml": "+425 / -210 / draw +380", "total": "3.5; O +100 / U -125", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/11/la-galaxy-st-louis-city-sc-761859-october-11-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761859", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.547000+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "scenarios": [], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "scenarios": [], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "scenarios": [], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "scenarios": [], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-11T11:35:23.093521+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 2.0, 6.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MQ", "retrieved": "2026-10-12T05:35:46.125132+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MQ", "verified_utc": "2026-10-12T05:35:46.125132+00:00", "scores": [ 2, 6 ], "status": "finalWhistle", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MQ" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MQ", "verified_utc": "2026-10-12T05:35:46.125132+00:00", "scores": [ 2, 6 ], "status": "finalWhistle", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MQ" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401908030", "before": { "date": "2026-10-11", "sport": "MLB", "competition": "MLB", "eventId": "401908030", "away": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "home": "Milwaukee Brewers", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+166) / +1.5 (-203)", "ml": "-107 / -113", "total": "6; O -112 / U -108", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 4.5 / 4.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/11/los-angeles-dodgers-milwaukee-brewers-401908030-october-11-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908030", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.635401+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 5.092592592592593, 4.216049382716049 ], "current_rates": [ 4.944444444444445, 3.7037037037037037 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 4.9753086419753085, 3.9135802469135803 ], "current_rates": [ 5.135802469135802, 3.814814814814815 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 3.3456790123456788, "mean_margin_error": 1.8742669753086432, "mean_total_error": 6.6913580246913575, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.5185595026406236, 3.7445491410366043 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.5185595026406236, 3.7445491410366043 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.5185595026406236, 3.7445491410366043 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4951, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "65edfabbc70b897ae8572c1609153a1ca29575d33740a96d8cea794bca1f5b8e" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.826627708740688, "mean_margin_error": 2.0411895993210782, "mean_total_error": 5.653255417481376, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-11-Retry-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-11-Retry-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 3.3842592592592595, "mean_margin_error": 2.1388888888888893, "mean_total_error": 6.768518518518519, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-11-Retry-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-11-Retry-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 3.3842592592592595, "mean_margin_error": 2.1388888888888893, "mean_total_error": 6.768518518518519, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-11", "sport": "MLB", "competition": "MLB", "eventId": "401908030", "away": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "home": "Milwaukee Brewers", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Los Angeles Dodgers 1, Milwaukee Brewers 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+166) / +1.5 (-203)", "ml": "-107 / -113", "total": "6; O -112 / U -108", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 4.5 / 4.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/11/los-angeles-dodgers-milwaukee-brewers-401908030-october-11-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908030", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.635401+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 5.092592592592593, 4.216049382716049 ], "current_rates": [ 4.944444444444445, 3.7037037037037037 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 4.9753086419753085, 3.9135802469135803 ], "current_rates": [ 5.135802469135802, 3.814814814814815 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 3.3456790123456788, "mean_margin_error": 1.8742669753086432, "mean_total_error": 6.6913580246913575, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.5185595026406236, 3.7445491410366043 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.5185595026406236, 3.7445491410366043 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.5185595026406236, 3.7445491410366043 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4951, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "65edfabbc70b897ae8572c1609153a1ca29575d33740a96d8cea794bca1f5b8e" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.826627708740688, "mean_margin_error": 2.0411895993210782, "mean_total_error": 5.653255417481376, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "adjustedScore": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-11T11:35:23.093521+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 30.0, 23.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.nfl.com/games/ravens-at-falcons-2026-reg-5", "retrieved": "2026-10-12T05:35:08.834681+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.nfl.com/games/ravens-at-falcons-2026-reg-5", "verified_utc": "2026-10-12T05:35:08.834681+00:00", "scores": [ 30, 23 ], "status": "Final", "evidence": "Official game center team-labelled final scoreboard" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.nfl.com/games/ravens-at-falcons-2026-reg-5", "verified_utc": "2026-10-12T05:35:08.834681+00:00", "scores": [ 30, 23 ], "status": "Final", "evidence": "Official game center team-labelled final scoreboard" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401908941", "before": { "date": "2026-10-11", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401908941", "away": "Chicago Bulls", "home": "Denver Nuggets", "startTime": "9:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+8.5 (-115) / -8.5 (-105)", "ml": "+260 / -325", "total": "233.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 116.5 / 122.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/11/chicago-bulls-denver-nuggets-401908941-october-11-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908941", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.691142+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.1158536585366, 123.29268292682927 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.1158536585366, 123.29268292682927 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.1158536585366, 123.29268292682927 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 116.3048780487805, 121.51219512195122 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 122.07317073170732, 116.92682926829268 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 7.664450484866295, "mean_margin_error": 8.427637378783421, "mean_total_error": 13.825416649175098, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 96.6097575, 136.6097575 ], "home": [ 101.79268, 141.79268000000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.21756839394763, 122.67635016771315 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.21756839394763, 122.67635016771315 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.21756839394763, 122.67635016771315 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2798, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T02:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "09c476b9df38bcd47afb8bd9ed87f89c985594e96b11bfe4a014202d9eef1a23" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 7.708156408063465, "mean_margin_error": 9.175897649507124, "mean_total_error": 13.138614341129742, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 96.6097575, 136.6097575 ], "home": [ 101.79268, 141.79268000000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.30488, "pa": 121.51219 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 122.07317, "pa": 116.914635 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 5, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.35893445183261935, 0.9177810759959433 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.20557575, "mean_margin_error": 9.810105071428566, "mean_total_error": 13.820558642857142, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 96.6097575, 136.6097575 ], "home": [ 101.79268, 141.79268000000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.30488, "pa": 121.51219 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 122.07317, "pa": 116.914635 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 5, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.35893445183261935, 0.9177810759959433 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.20557575, "mean_margin_error": 9.810105071428566, "mean_total_error": 13.820558642857142, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 96.6097575, 136.6097575 ], "home": [ 101.79268, 141.79268000000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "adjustedScore": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-11T11:35:23.093521+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-11", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401908941", "away": "Chicago Bulls", "home": "Denver Nuggets", "startTime": "9:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Chicago Bulls 128, Denver Nuggets 133", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+8.5 (-115) / -8.5 (-105)", "ml": "+260 / -325", "total": "233.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 116.5 / 122.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/11/chicago-bulls-denver-nuggets-401908941-october-11-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908941", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.691142+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.1158536585366, 123.29268292682927 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.1158536585366, 123.29268292682927 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.1158536585366, 123.29268292682927 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 116.3048780487805, 121.51219512195122 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 122.07317073170732, 116.92682926829268 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 7.664450484866295, "mean_margin_error": 8.427637378783421, "mean_total_error": 13.825416649175098, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 96.6097575, 136.6097575 ], "home": [ 101.79268, 141.79268000000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.21756839394763, 122.67635016771315 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.21756839394763, 122.67635016771315 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.21756839394763, 122.67635016771315 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2798, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T02:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "09c476b9df38bcd47afb8bd9ed87f89c985594e96b11bfe4a014202d9eef1a23" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 7.708156408063465, "mean_margin_error": 9.175897649507124, "mean_total_error": 13.138614341129742, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 96.6097575, 136.6097575 ], "home": [ 101.79268, 141.79268000000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.30488, "pa": 121.51219 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 122.07317, "pa": 116.914635 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 5, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.35893445183261935, 0.9177810759959433 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.20557575, "mean_margin_error": 9.810105071428566, "mean_total_error": 13.820558642857142, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 96.6097575, 136.6097575 ], "home": [ 101.79268, 141.79268000000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.30488, "pa": 121.51219 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 122.07317, "pa": 116.914635 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 5, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.35893445183261935, 0.9177810759959433 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-10", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.20557575, "mean_margin_error": 9.810105071428566, "mean_total_error": 13.820558642857142, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 96.6097575, 136.6097575 ], "home": [ 101.79268, 141.79268000000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "adjustedScore": [ 116.6097575, 121.79268 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-11T11:35:23.093521+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 128.0, 133.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612743/schedule", "retrieved": "2026-10-12T05:36:57.213992+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612743/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-12T05:36:57.213992+00:00", "scores": [ 128, 133 ], "status": "Completed W/L result", "stage": "Preseason", "evidence": "Oct 11 vs CHI W 128 - 133" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612743/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-12T05:36:57.213992+00:00", "scores": [ 128, 133 ], "status": "Completed W/L result", "stage": "Preseason", "evidence": "Oct 11 vs CHI W 128 - 133" }, "applied": false } ], "summary": { "events": 22, "wins": 2, "losses": 0, "no_grade": 20 }, "preservation": "Original Oct11 site/ZIP unchanged; original selection, line and freeze preserved." }