{ "dateEastern": "2026-10-12", "created_utc": "2026-10-12T05:52:24.855371+00:00", "phase": "POSTFREEZE_MARKET_GATE_ONLY", "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:15.734012+00:00", "markets_captured_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.820551+00:00", "immutable_inputs": { "score-freeze.json": "30597b66954197d2ae516c9b80f866c4bdd5f30cc48c52f24ed8151166749a2e", "market-snapshot.json": "22b504f2d16fcc5b08b046278d35b9f077cd5d39947fdb8cf8064af05ee54625", "offensive\\event-team-reviews.json": "174baf04aad34de23769434346e0a610c6bc316226559dda0585a83747dfb7e2", "offensive\\mlb-pitching-and-bullpen-review.json": "8a3e360b2a1680ce385b7c1d2d002baf3f006102909d1479499fa151f7e8c1a9" }, "policy": { "mlb_base_runline_and_total_floor": 1.0, "conservative_increment": 0.5, "adverse_runs": 1.0, "additional_event_specific_stress": "Mandatory, separately evaluated; no invented coefficient", "price_limit": "American strictly better than-400", "frozen_forecasts_changed": false, "NBA_NHL": "TRACKING_ONLY", "sources": [ "experimental-projects/Tighten-Up-Process/TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS.md", "experimental-projects/Tighten-Up-Process/MODEL-CALIBRATION-POLICY.json", "experimental-projects/Tighten-Up-Process/OFFENSIVE-REPLACEMENT-TRACKING-POLICY.md" ] }, "events": [ { "eventId": "401892485", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "away_name": "Florida Panthers", "home_name": "Buffalo Sabres", "date": "2026-10-12T17:00Z" }, "market": { "id": "401892485", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892485", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.183345+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.564047+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 225.0, "away_line_price": -278.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 110.0, "under_price": -130.0, "home_ml": -108.0, "away_ml": -112.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Existing sport policy requires explicit live activation; short current season/preseason samples do not activate wagering.", "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true }, { "eventId": "401914130", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "away_name": "London Lions", "home_name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z" }, "market": { "id": "401914130", "quotes": [], "average_home_line": null, "average_total": null, "spread_quote_count": 0, "total_quote_count": 0, "average_status": "UNAVAILABLE" }, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Existing sport policy requires explicit live activation; short current season/preseason samples do not activate wagering.", "market_missing": true, "website_excluded": true, "research_record_retained": true }, { "eventId": "401908031", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "away_name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "home_name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "date": "2026-10-12T21:00Z" }, "market": { "id": "401908031", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908031", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.183345+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.553836+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -162.0, "away_line_price": 134.0, "total": 7.0, "under_line": 7.0, "over_price": 103.0, "under_price": -124.0, "home_ml": 113.0, "away_ml": -136.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 7.0, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "risks": [ { "id": "NLCS2-starter-exposure", "severity": "high-for-promotion", "unresolved": true, "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "finding": "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.", "quantified_incremental_runs": null, "why_no_conversion": "ERA is descriptive, not a supported direct conversion into the game score. No frozen validated starter-length/run-value correction bounds these branches.", "resolution": "Timestamped pitcher/innings scenario with documented conversion and repeat line cushion calculation." }, { "id": "NLCS2-platoon-reference", "severity": "medium", "unresolved": true, "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "finding": "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons.", "quantified_incremental_runs": null, "resolution": "Confirm orders and assess incremental PA relative to existing reference; do not apply an injury penalty to a normal platoon." }, { "id": "NLCS2-bullpen-use", "severity": "medium", "unresolved": true, "markets": [ "run_line" ], "finding": "Game1 on Oct11 ET used MIL Ashby26 pitches/2IP, Uribe15/1IP, Megill19/1IP, Hall4/0.2IP. LAD used Vesia16/1IP, Phillips17/1IP and Scott9/1IP. Ashby repeating a two-inning bridge is unconfirmed; substitute innings could harm MIL run-line protection. None is declared unavailable merely from pitch count.", "quantified_incremental_runs": null, "total_direction": "Less effective relief supports Over, so it is not mechanically counted as an adverse Over penalty. Stronger-than-average rested or effective remaining relief is a separate unestimated suppression branch.", "resolution": "Confirm availability/bridge choices and bound incremental relief effect; retain workload as evidence, not an automatic fatigue coefficient." } ], "models": { "Classic": { "score_away_home": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "home_margin": 0.2483217592592588, "total": 8.846161265432098, "conservative_mode": false, "run_line": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.7483217592592588, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.7483217592592588, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -162.0, "stressed_home_margin": -0.7516782407407412, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility." }, "total_gate": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.846161265432098, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.846161265432098, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 7.0, "price": 103.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.846161265432098, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility." }, "moneyline": { "no_vig_away_probability": 0.551057677674631, "no_vig_home_probability": 0.44894232232536907, "minimum_edge_probability_points": 5, "model_probability": null, "model_probability_edge": null, "stressed_probability_edge": null, "decision": "PASS", "reason": "No calibrated model win probability exists in frozen record; a score lead is not a5/7percentage-point no-vig edge." }, "calibration_note": "Frozen postseason historical cohort n=1 is descriptive, not evidence of reliable event probabilities. This is not the sole side/total rejection reason." }, "Primary": { "score_away_home": [ 3.424234623832983, 3.6617286917367746 ], "home_margin": 0.2374940679037918, "total": 7.0859633155697574, "conservative_mode": false, "run_line": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.7374940679037918, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.7374940679037918, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -162.0, "stressed_home_margin": -0.7625059320962082, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility." }, "total_gate": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 0.08596331556975745, "base_floor_met": false, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": -0.9140366844302426, "same_side_after_one_run": false, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": false, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "NO_EDGE", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 7.0, "price": 103.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 6.0859633155697574, "reason": "Numerical buffer/stress fails." }, "moneyline": { "no_vig_away_probability": 0.551057677674631, "no_vig_home_probability": 0.44894232232536907, "minimum_edge_probability_points": 5, "model_probability": null, "model_probability_edge": null, "stressed_probability_edge": null, "decision": "PASS", "reason": "No calibrated model win probability exists in frozen record; a score lead is not a5/7percentage-point no-vig edge." }, "calibration_note": "Frozen postseason historical cohort n=1 is descriptive, not evidence of reliable event probabilities. This is not the sole side/total rejection reason." }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "score_away_home": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "home_margin": 0.04012345679012341, "total": 8.799382716049383, "conservative_mode": true, "run_line": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.5401234567901234, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5401234567901234, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -162.0, "stressed_home_margin": -0.9598765432098766, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified." }, "total_gate": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.799382716049383, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.7993827160493829, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 7.0, "price": 103.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.799382716049383, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified." }, "moneyline": { "no_vig_away_probability": 0.551057677674631, "no_vig_home_probability": 0.44894232232536907, "minimum_edge_probability_points": 7, "model_probability": null, "model_probability_edge": null, "stressed_probability_edge": null, "decision": "PASS", "reason": "No calibrated model win probability exists in frozen record; a score lead is not a5/7percentage-point no-vig edge." }, "calibration_note": "Frozen postseason historical cohort n=1 is descriptive, not evidence of reliable event probabilities. This is not the sole side/total rejection reason." }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "score_away_home": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "home_margin": 0.04012345679012341, "total": 8.799382716049383, "conservative_mode": false, "run_line": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.5401234567901234, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5401234567901234, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -162.0, "stressed_home_margin": -0.9598765432098766, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility." }, "total_gate": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.799382716049383, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.7993827160493829, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 7.0, "price": 103.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.799382716049383, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility." }, "moneyline": { "no_vig_away_probability": 0.551057677674631, "no_vig_home_probability": 0.44894232232536907, "minimum_edge_probability_points": 5, "model_probability": null, "model_probability_edge": null, "stressed_probability_edge": null, "decision": "PASS", "reason": "No calibrated model win probability exists in frozen record; a score lead is not a5/7percentage-point no-vig edge." }, "calibration_note": "Frozen postseason historical cohort n=1 is descriptive, not evidence of reliable event probabilities. This is not the sole side/total rejection reason." } }, "pitching_review": [ { "team": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "starter": { "id": 808967, "fullName": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "link": "/api/v1/people/808967" }, "last_appearance_date_utc": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "last_appearance_stats": { "inningsPitched": "7.0", "pitchesThrown": 98, "earnedRuns": 1 }, "calendar_days_since_last_appearance": 6, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&date=2026-10-12&hydrate=probablePitcher" }, { "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "starter": { "id": 701656, "fullName": "Logan Henderson", "link": "/api/v1/people/701656" }, "last_appearance_date_utc": "2026-10-04T20:00:00Z", "last_appearance_stats": { "inningsPitched": "5.0", "pitchesThrown": 72, "earnedRuns": 1 }, "calendar_days_since_last_appearance": 8, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&date=2026-10-12&hydrate=probablePitcher" } ], "decision": "PASS", "reason": "Separate numeric qualification from promotion. Required event-specific robustness not certified; Conservative ON also rejects unresolved medium risks.", "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/MKX/86,64/forecast/hourly", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/few?size=small", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,20?size=small", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=200", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849809/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-11&endDate=2026-10-12", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2025&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2026&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://www.mlb.com/gameday/dodgers-vs-brewers/2026/10/12/849812" ] }, { "eventId": "401892486", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "away_name": "Ottawa Senators", "home_name": "New Jersey Devils", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z" }, "market": { "id": "401892486", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892486", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.184562+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.496784+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 185.0, "away_line_price": -225.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -125.0, "under_price": 105.0, "home_ml": -135.0, "away_ml": 114.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Existing sport policy requires explicit live activation; short current season/preseason samples do not activate wagering.", "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true }, { "eventId": "401898402", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "away_name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "home_name": "Atlanta Hawks", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z" }, "market": { "id": "401898402", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898402", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.184562+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.500796+00:00", "home_line": -7.5, "away_line": 7.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 222.5, "under_line": 222.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -285.0, "away_ml": 230.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -7.5, "average_total": 222.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Existing sport policy requires explicit live activation; short current season/preseason samples do not activate wagering.", "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true }, { "eventId": "401901824", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "away_name": "Brooklyn Nets", "home_name": "Washington Wizards", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z" }, "market": { "id": "401901824", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901824", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.184562+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.505578+00:00", "home_line": -2.5, "away_line": 2.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 222.5, "under_line": 222.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -142.0, "away_ml": 120.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -2.5, "average_total": 222.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Existing sport policy requires explicit live activation; short current season/preseason samples do not activate wagering.", "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true }, { "eventId": "401914124", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "away_name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "home_name": "New York Knicks", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z" }, "market": { "id": "401914124", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.455858+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.723012+00:00", "home_line": -2.5, "away_line": 2.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 227.5, "under_line": 227.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -142.0, "away_ml": 120.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -2.5, "average_total": 227.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Existing sport policy requires explicit live activation; short current season/preseason samples do not activate wagering.", "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true }, { "eventId": "401892487", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "away_name": "Vegas Golden Knights", "home_name": "Minnesota Wild", "date": "2026-10-13T00:00Z" }, "market": { "id": "401892487", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892487", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.510906+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.727714+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 210.0, "away_line_price": -258.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -130.0, "under_price": 110.0, "home_ml": -118.0, "away_ml": -102.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Existing sport policy requires explicit live activation; short current season/preseason samples do not activate wagering.", "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true }, { "eventId": "401908023", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "away_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "home_name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "date": "2026-10-13T00:00Z" }, "market": { "id": "401908023", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908023", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.510906+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.803059+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 130.0, "away_line_price": -157.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -122.0, "under_price": 101.0, "home_ml": -172.0, "away_ml": 142.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "risks": [ { "id": "ALCS1-starter-and-trade-exposure", "severity": "high-for-promotion", "unresolved": true, "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "finding": "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.", "quantified_incremental_runs": null, "why_no_conversion": "No validated frozen pitcher-to-game run conversion or supported current workload bound; Griffin NPB2024/25 history is not filled with zeros. Competing directional branches cannot be collapsed into one invented deduction.", "resolution": "Verify starter length and apply documented inning-weighted conversion before declaring combined stress survived." }, { "id": "ALCS1-lineup-and-platoon", "severity": "medium", "unresolved": true, "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "finding": "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine.", "quantified_incremental_runs": null, "resolution": "Confirm lineup and affected PA/late-game substitutions; compare against frozen reference without double-counting normal platoon exposure." }, { "id": "ALCS1-bullpen-asymmetry", "severity": "medium", "unresolved": true, "markets": [ "run_line" ], "finding": "CLE preview records27 bullpen innings in postseason; Oct10 ET Smith27pitches/1.2IP and Gaddis24/1.1IP followed Oct8 workloads Smith31 and Gaddis16. Oct11 was an off day, so neither is assumed unavailable. TB had no appearances in the captured last3calendar-day window after the sweep; rested relief may sustain a low Cleveland score. CLE needing another long bridge threatens +1.5; weaker CLE relief can raise, not lower, the total.", "quantified_incremental_runs": null, "resolution": "Confirm CLE high-leverage availability and Griffin length; compare fresh TB relief exposure without assuming exact inning assignments." } ], "models": { "Classic": { "score_away_home": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "home_margin": 0.4131558641975306, "total": 8.408757716049381, "conservative_mode": false, "run_line": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.0868441358024694, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.08684413580246941, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Cleveland Guardians", "line": 1.5, "price": -157.0, "stressed_home_margin": 1.4131558641975306, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility." }, "total_gate": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.9087577160493812, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9087577160493812, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 6.5, "price": -122.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.408757716049381, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility." }, "moneyline": { "no_vig_away_probability": 0.39521097291642454, "no_vig_home_probability": 0.6047890270835755, "minimum_edge_probability_points": 5, "model_probability": null, "model_probability_edge": null, "stressed_probability_edge": null, "decision": "PASS", "reason": "No calibrated model win probability exists in frozen record; a score lead is not a5/7percentage-point no-vig edge." }, "calibration_note": "Frozen postseason historical cohort n=1 is descriptive, not evidence of reliable event probabilities. This is not the sole side/total rejection reason." }, "Primary": { "score_away_home": [ 3.1237759923355632, 3.5547010587274968 ], "home_margin": 0.4309250663919335, "total": 6.67847705106306, "conservative_mode": false, "run_line": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.0690749336080665, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.06907493360806649, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Cleveland Guardians", "line": 1.5, "price": -157.0, "stressed_home_margin": 1.4309250663919335, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility." }, "total_gate": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 0.17847705106306044, "base_floor_met": false, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": -0.8215229489369396, "same_side_after_one_run": false, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": false, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "NO_EDGE", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 6.5, "price": -122.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 5.67847705106306, "reason": "Numerical buffer/stress fails." }, "moneyline": { "no_vig_away_probability": 0.39521097291642454, "no_vig_home_probability": 0.6047890270835755, "minimum_edge_probability_points": 5, "model_probability": null, "model_probability_edge": null, "stressed_probability_edge": null, "decision": "PASS", "reason": "No calibrated model win probability exists in frozen record; a score lead is not a5/7percentage-point no-vig edge." }, "calibration_note": "Frozen postseason historical cohort n=1 is descriptive, not evidence of reliable event probabilities. This is not the sole side/total rejection reason." }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "score_away_home": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "home_margin": 0.23148148148148096, "total": 8.429012345679013, "conservative_mode": true, "run_line": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.268518518518519, "base_floor_met": false, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.26851851851851904, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": false, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "NO_EDGE", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Cleveland Guardians", "line": 1.5, "price": -157.0, "stressed_home_margin": 1.231481481481481, "reason": "Numerical buffer/stress fails." }, "total_gate": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.9290123456790127, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9290123456790127, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 6.5, "price": -122.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.429012345679013, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified." }, "moneyline": { "no_vig_away_probability": 0.39521097291642454, "no_vig_home_probability": 0.6047890270835755, "minimum_edge_probability_points": 7, "model_probability": null, "model_probability_edge": null, "stressed_probability_edge": null, "decision": "PASS", "reason": "No calibrated model win probability exists in frozen record; a score lead is not a5/7percentage-point no-vig edge." }, "calibration_note": "Frozen postseason historical cohort n=1 is descriptive, not evidence of reliable event probabilities. This is not the sole side/total rejection reason." }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "score_away_home": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "home_margin": 0.23148148148148096, "total": 8.429012345679013, "conservative_mode": false, "run_line": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.268518518518519, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.26851851851851904, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Cleveland Guardians", "line": 1.5, "price": -157.0, "stressed_home_margin": 1.231481481481481, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility." }, "total_gate": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.9290123456790127, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9290123456790127, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 6.5, "price": -122.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.429012345679013, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility." }, "moneyline": { "no_vig_away_probability": 0.39521097291642454, "no_vig_home_probability": 0.6047890270835755, "minimum_edge_probability_points": 5, "model_probability": null, "model_probability_edge": null, "stressed_probability_edge": null, "decision": "PASS", "reason": "No calibrated model win probability exists in frozen record; a score lead is not a5/7percentage-point no-vig edge." }, "calibration_note": "Frozen postseason historical cohort n=1 is descriptive, not evidence of reliable event probabilities. This is not the sole side/total rejection reason." } }, "pitching_review": [ { "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "starter": { "id": 656492, "fullName": "Foster Griffin", "link": "/api/v1/people/656492" }, "last_appearance_date_utc": "2026-10-07T20:00:00Z", "last_appearance_stats": { "inningsPitched": "2.2", "pitchesThrown": 53, "earnedRuns": 1 }, "calendar_days_since_last_appearance": 5, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&date=2026-10-12&hydrate=probablePitcher" }, { "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "starter": { "id": 656876, "fullName": "Drew Rasmussen", "link": "/api/v1/people/656876" }, "last_appearance_date_utc": "2026-10-03T22:30:00Z", "last_appearance_stats": { "inningsPitched": "8.0", "pitchesThrown": 101, "earnedRuns": 0 }, "calendar_days_since_last_appearance": 9, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&date=2026-10-12&hydrate=probablePitcher" } ], "decision": "PASS", "reason": "Separate numeric qualification from promotion. Required event-specific robustness not certified; Conservative ON also rejects unresolved medium risks.", "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=200", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849831/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849838/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-11&endDate=2026-10-12", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2025&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2026&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/venues/12?hydrate=fieldInfo", "https://www.mlb.com/news/guardians-vs-rays-alcs-game-1-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup" ] }, { "eventId": "401898721", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "away_name": "San Antonio Spurs", "home_name": "Utah Jazz", "date": "2026-10-13T01:00Z" }, "market": { "id": "401898721", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898721", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.570086+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.757313+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 227.5, "under_line": 227.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 114.0, "away_ml": -135.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 2.5, "average_total": 227.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Existing sport policy requires explicit live activation; short current season/preseason samples do not activate wagering.", "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true } ], "qa": { "event_count": 10, "MLB_count": 2, "tracking_count": 8, "frozen_inputs_rehashed": true, "price_source": "Single provider DraftKings via ESPN; not broad market consensus", "risk_assessment": "Postprice gate assessment of prefreeze facts, no forecast retuning", "package_semantics": "PASS is a completed wagering decision. It does not itself block packaging; all numerical-only gates and unresolved promotion conditions must be disclosed." } }