{ "ledger": { "created_utc": "2026-10-13T05:47:59.720877+00:00", "date_eastern": "2026-10-13", "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "market_data_read": false, "incidental_exposure": false, "release_status": "REVIEW COMPLETE / CONDITIONAL ENDPOINTS REQUIRE POSTFREEZE GATES", "blocking_reasons": [], "source_failures": [ "ESPN college depthcharts returned empty for all four; resolved with current official game notes.", "Jax document viewer HTML not PDF; resolved via official /documents/download/ PDF." ], "event_reviews": [ { "event_id": "401871067", "identity": { "id": "401871067", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3725", "fullName": "Johnny \"Red\" Floyd Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Murfreesboro", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "48", "away_name": "Delaware Blue Hens", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2393", "home_name": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ] }, "teams": [ { "team_id": "48", "team": "Delaware Blue Hens", "side": "away", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Nick Minicucci", "EJ Archield Jr.", "Braden Streeter", "Tyler Bell", "Riley Trujillo" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Nick Minicucci", "status": "CURRENT STATUS UNRESOLVED: missed Oct2with injury" }, { "player": "EJ Archield Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Braden Streeter", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Tyler Bell", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Riley Trujillo", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "players": { "Nick Minicucci": [ { "year": 2024, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FCS", "games": 9, "starts": 5, "pass_cmp": 79, "pass_att": 124, "pass_yds": 825, "pass_td": 10, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 45, "rush_yds": 109, "rush_td": 3, "yards_per_attempt": 6.653225806451613, "completion_rate": 0.6370967741935484, "interception_rate": 0.024193548387096774 }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 13, "starts": 12, "pass_cmp": 322, "pass_att": 512, "pass_yds": 3683, "pass_td": 23, "pass_int": 7, "rush_att": 112, "rush_yds": 235, "rush_td": 10, "yards_per_attempt": 7.193359375, "completion_rate": 0.62890625, "interception_rate": 0.013671875 }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 4, "pass_cmp": 59, "pass_att": 103, "pass_yds": 838, "pass_td": 5, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 20, "rush_yds": 26, "rush_td": 1, "yards_per_attempt": 8.135922330097088, "completion_rate": 0.5728155339805825, "interception_rate": 0.02912621359223301 } ], "EJ Archield Jr.": [ { "year": 2024, "team": null, "college_games": 0, "college_opportunities": 0, "status": "No collegiate competition; official Oct2 2026 collegiate debut. High school not converted to college." }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "games": 0, "starts": 0, "pass_att": 0, "rush_att": 0, "status": "No collegiate appearance before Oct2 2026 debut." }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 1, "starts": 1, "pass_cmp": 10, "pass_att": 19, "pass_yds": 137, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yds": 18, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 7.2105263157894735, "completion_rate": 0.5263157894736842, "interception_rate": 0.0 } ], "Braden Streeter": [ { "year": 2024, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FCS", "games": 2, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 6, "pass_att": 7, "pass_yds": 56, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yds": 5, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 8.0, "completion_rate": 0.8571428571428571, "interception_rate": 0.0 }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 3, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 12, "pass_att": 19, "pass_yds": 98, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 1, "rush_att": 1, "rush_yds": 1, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 5.157894736842105, "completion_rate": 0.631578947368421, "interception_rate": 0.05263157894736842 }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 12, "pass_att": 35, "pass_yds": 175, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 7, "rush_yds": -12, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 5.0, "completion_rate": 0.34285714285714286, "interception_rate": 0.08571428571428572 } ] }, "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/bluehens.com/documents/2026/10/9/2026_Delaware_Football_Notes_-_Middle_Tennessee.pdf?timestamp=20261009073210", "pages": [ 32, 33 ], "method": "Separate season/competition rows and exact opportunity arithmetic; FCS2024 vs FBS2025/current never pooled into replacement conversion.", "familiarity": "Official p14states Archield returning sophomore with Minicucci and Streeter, shared current Delaware offense; Ryan Carty and OC Terence Archer fifth season; Garrett Smith fifth at Delaware but first in QB role. Shared program is evidence of familiarity, not measured protection-call proficiency.", "opportunity_change": "If Minicucci remains unavailable, incumbent starter snaps/passing/rushing redistribute to Archield and possibly Streeter/Bell; exact Oct13share not confirmed. Latest Liberty debut does not guarantee sole starter workload.", "missing_metrics": [ "Pressure-adjusted efficiency", "individual protection-call experience", "individual sacks by QB", "drive scoring independent of game rates", "verified drops/routes/targets" ], "statistical_effect": null, "statistical_conclusion": "Unestimated: one Archield appearance and mixed-level historical comparison do not justify a player-specific point conversion. Team scoring inputs already include prior Liberty14-point result; no double-counted extra team-rate penalty." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Jo Silver", "Viron Ellison Jr.", "Kaderris Roberts" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jo Silver", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Viron Ellison Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Kaderris Roberts", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Wilson21catches304yards; Lofton13/258; Graves12/147; Lewis9/124. Silver52carries211yards; Ellison19/71; Roberts21/86. Sessoms5/71 as primary receivingTE. Routes/snaps/targets unavailable; no invented share.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes pp17,32-39,68; latest five-game starting-lineup log; Minicucci started first4 then Archield LibertyOct2.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Sean Wilson", "Da\u2019Wain Lofton", "Bryson Graves", "Donovan Lewis" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Sean Wilson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Da\u2019Wain Lofton", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Bryson Graves", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Donovan Lewis", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Wilson21catches304yards; Lofton13/258; Graves12/147; Lewis9/124. Silver52carries211yards; Ellison19/71; Roberts21/86. Sessoms5/71 as primary receivingTE. Routes/snaps/targets unavailable; no invented share.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes pp17,32-39,68; latest five-game starting-lineup log; Minicucci started first4 then Archield LibertyOct2.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Elijah Sessoms", "Scott Moore" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Elijah Sessoms", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Scott Moore", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Wilson21catches304yards; Lofton13/258; Graves12/147; Lewis9/124. Silver52carries211yards; Ellison19/71; Roberts21/86. Sessoms5/71 as primary receivingTE. Routes/snaps/targets unavailable; no invented share.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes pp17,32-39,68; latest five-game starting-lineup log; Minicucci started first4 then Archield LibertyOct2.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Nick Minicucci", "EJ Archield Jr.", "Braden Streeter", "Tyler Bell", "Riley Trujillo" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Nick Minicucci", "status": "CURRENT STATUS UNRESOLVED: missed Oct2with injury" }, { "player": "EJ Archield Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Braden Streeter", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Tyler Bell", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Riley Trujillo", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "players": { "Nick Minicucci": [ { "year": 2024, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FCS", "games": 9, "starts": 5, "pass_cmp": 79, "pass_att": 124, "pass_yds": 825, "pass_td": 10, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 45, "rush_yds": 109, "rush_td": 3, "yards_per_attempt": 6.653225806451613, "completion_rate": 0.6370967741935484, "interception_rate": 0.024193548387096774 }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 13, "starts": 12, "pass_cmp": 322, "pass_att": 512, "pass_yds": 3683, "pass_td": 23, "pass_int": 7, "rush_att": 112, "rush_yds": 235, "rush_td": 10, "yards_per_attempt": 7.193359375, "completion_rate": 0.62890625, "interception_rate": 0.013671875 }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 4, "pass_cmp": 59, "pass_att": 103, "pass_yds": 838, "pass_td": 5, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 20, "rush_yds": 26, "rush_td": 1, "yards_per_attempt": 8.135922330097088, "completion_rate": 0.5728155339805825, "interception_rate": 0.02912621359223301 } ], "EJ Archield Jr.": [ { "year": 2024, "team": null, "college_games": 0, "college_opportunities": 0, "status": "No collegiate competition; official Oct2 2026 collegiate debut. High school not converted to college." }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "games": 0, "starts": 0, "pass_att": 0, "rush_att": 0, "status": "No collegiate appearance before Oct2 2026 debut." }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 1, "starts": 1, "pass_cmp": 10, "pass_att": 19, "pass_yds": 137, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yds": 18, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 7.2105263157894735, "completion_rate": 0.5263157894736842, "interception_rate": 0.0 } ], "Braden Streeter": [ { "year": 2024, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FCS", "games": 2, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 6, "pass_att": 7, "pass_yds": 56, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yds": 5, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 8.0, "completion_rate": 0.8571428571428571, "interception_rate": 0.0 }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 3, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 12, "pass_att": 19, "pass_yds": 98, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 1, "rush_att": 1, "rush_yds": 1, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 5.157894736842105, "completion_rate": 0.631578947368421, "interception_rate": 0.05263157894736842 }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 12, "pass_att": 35, "pass_yds": 175, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 7, "rush_yds": -12, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 5.0, "completion_rate": 0.34285714285714286, "interception_rate": 0.08571428571428572 } ] }, "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/bluehens.com/documents/2026/10/9/2026_Delaware_Football_Notes_-_Middle_Tennessee.pdf?timestamp=20261009073210", "pages": [ 32, 33 ], "method": "Separate season/competition rows and exact opportunity arithmetic; FCS2024 vs FBS2025/current never pooled into replacement conversion.", "familiarity": "Official p14states Archield returning sophomore with Minicucci and Streeter, shared current Delaware offense; Ryan Carty and OC Terence Archer fifth season; Garrett Smith fifth at Delaware but first in QB role. Shared program is evidence of familiarity, not measured protection-call proficiency.", "opportunity_change": "If Minicucci remains unavailable, incumbent starter snaps/passing/rushing redistribute to Archield and possibly Streeter/Bell; exact Oct13share not confirmed. Latest Liberty debut does not guarantee sole starter workload.", "missing_metrics": [ "Pressure-adjusted efficiency", "individual protection-call experience", "individual sacks by QB", "drive scoring independent of game rates", "verified drops/routes/targets" ], "statistical_effect": null, "statistical_conclusion": "Unestimated: one Archield appearance and mixed-level historical comparison do not justify a player-specific point conversion. Team scoring inputs already include prior Liberty14-point result; no double-counted extra team-rate penalty." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Jo Silver", "Viron Ellison Jr.", "Kaderris Roberts" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jo Silver", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Viron Ellison Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Kaderris Roberts", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Wilson21catches304yards; Lofton13/258; Graves12/147; Lewis9/124. Silver52carries211yards; Ellison19/71; Roberts21/86. Sessoms5/71 as primary receivingTE. Routes/snaps/targets unavailable; no invented share.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes pp17,32-39,68; latest five-game starting-lineup log; Minicucci started first4 then Archield LibertyOct2.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Sean Wilson", "Da\u2019Wain Lofton", "Bryson Graves", "Donovan Lewis" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Sean Wilson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Da\u2019Wain Lofton", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Bryson Graves", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Donovan Lewis", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Wilson21catches304yards; Lofton13/258; Graves12/147; Lewis9/124. Silver52carries211yards; Ellison19/71; Roberts21/86. Sessoms5/71 as primary receivingTE. Routes/snaps/targets unavailable; no invented share.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes pp17,32-39,68; latest five-game starting-lineup log; Minicucci started first4 then Archield LibertyOct2.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Elijah Sessoms", "Scott Moore" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Elijah Sessoms", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Scott Moore", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Wilson21catches304yards; Lofton13/258; Graves12/147; Lewis9/124. Silver52carries211yards; Ellison19/71; Roberts21/86. Sessoms5/71 as primary receivingTE. Routes/snaps/targets unavailable; no invented share.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes pp17,32-39,68; latest five-game starting-lineup log; Minicucci started first4 then Archield LibertyOct2.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "scenario_id": "delaware-minicucci-unavailable", "trigger": "Conditional only: Minicucci remains absent or materially limited and replacement workload required.", "incumbent": "Nick Minicucci", "replacement": [ "EJ Archield Jr.", "Braden Streeter", "Tyler Bell" ], "availability": "UNRESOLVED for Oct13; official Oct10preview reports missed prior game, not current OUT.", "comparison": { "players": { "Nick Minicucci": [ { "year": 2024, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FCS", "games": 9, "starts": 5, "pass_cmp": 79, "pass_att": 124, "pass_yds": 825, "pass_td": 10, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 45, "rush_yds": 109, "rush_td": 3, "yards_per_attempt": 6.653225806451613, "completion_rate": 0.6370967741935484, "interception_rate": 0.024193548387096774 }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 13, "starts": 12, "pass_cmp": 322, "pass_att": 512, "pass_yds": 3683, "pass_td": 23, "pass_int": 7, "rush_att": 112, "rush_yds": 235, "rush_td": 10, "yards_per_attempt": 7.193359375, "completion_rate": 0.62890625, "interception_rate": 0.013671875 }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 4, "pass_cmp": 59, "pass_att": 103, "pass_yds": 838, "pass_td": 5, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 20, "rush_yds": 26, "rush_td": 1, "yards_per_attempt": 8.135922330097088, "completion_rate": 0.5728155339805825, "interception_rate": 0.02912621359223301 } ], "EJ Archield Jr.": [ { "year": 2024, "team": null, "college_games": 0, "college_opportunities": 0, "status": "No collegiate competition; official Oct2 2026 collegiate debut. High school not converted to college." }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "games": 0, "starts": 0, "pass_att": 0, "rush_att": 0, "status": "No collegiate appearance before Oct2 2026 debut." }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 1, "starts": 1, "pass_cmp": 10, "pass_att": 19, "pass_yds": 137, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yds": 18, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 7.2105263157894735, "completion_rate": 0.5263157894736842, "interception_rate": 0.0 } ], "Braden Streeter": [ { "year": 2024, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FCS", "games": 2, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 6, "pass_att": 7, "pass_yds": 56, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yds": 5, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 8.0, "completion_rate": 0.8571428571428571, "interception_rate": 0.0 }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 3, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 12, "pass_att": 19, "pass_yds": 98, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 1, "rush_att": 1, "rush_yds": 1, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 5.157894736842105, "completion_rate": 0.631578947368421, "interception_rate": 0.05263157894736842 }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 12, "pass_att": 35, "pass_yds": 175, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 7, "rush_yds": -12, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 5.0, "completion_rate": 0.34285714285714286, "interception_rate": 0.08571428571428572 } ] }, "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/bluehens.com/documents/2026/10/9/2026_Delaware_Football_Notes_-_Middle_Tennessee.pdf?timestamp=20261009073210", "pages": [ 32, 33 ], "method": "Separate season/competition rows and exact opportunity arithmetic; FCS2024 vs FBS2025/current never pooled into replacement conversion.", "familiarity": "Official p14states Archield returning sophomore with Minicucci and Streeter, shared current Delaware offense; Ryan Carty and OC Terence Archer fifth season; Garrett Smith fifth at Delaware but first in QB role. Shared program is evidence of familiarity, not measured protection-call proficiency.", "opportunity_change": "If Minicucci remains unavailable, incumbent starter snaps/passing/rushing redistribute to Archield and possibly Streeter/Bell; exact Oct13share not confirmed. Latest Liberty debut does not guarantee sole starter workload.", "missing_metrics": [ "Pressure-adjusted efficiency", "individual protection-call experience", "individual sacks by QB", "drive scoring independent of game rates", "verified drops/routes/targets" ], "statistical_effect": null, "statistical_conclusion": "Unestimated: one Archield appearance and mixed-level historical comparison do not justify a player-specific point conversion. Team scoring inputs already include prior Liberty14-point result; no double-counted extra team-rate penalty." }, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [], "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "gate": "PASS pending QB status and all scenario/stress/market gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "gate": "PASS pending QB status and all scenario/stress/market gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "gate": "PASS pending QB status and all scenario/stress/market gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "gate": "PASS pending QB status and all scenario/stress/market gates" } }, "player": "Nick Minicucci", "state": "UNRESOLVED for Oct13; official Oct10preview reports missed prior game, not current OUT.", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "EJ Archield Jr., Braden Streeter, Tyler Bell", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "If Minicucci remains unavailable, incumbent starter snaps/passing/rushing redistribute to Archield and possibly Streeter/Bell; exact Oct13share not confirmed. Latest Liberty debut does not guarantee sole starter workload.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] } } } ], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [ { "name": "Minicucci available without material limitation", "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ] } }, { "name": "Minicucci unavailable or materially limited, replacement workload", "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 24.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 20.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ] } } ], "overlap": "Single covered QB trigger; no RB/WR/TE penalty identified or stacked. QB passing loss not deducted again from receivers.", "status": "Conditional unresolved" }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Current role holders and material committee/receivingTE contributors reviewed. Routine rotations and offseason transfers are not availability deductions. No evidence supports other current covered-role absence.", "official_depth_source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/bluehens.com/documents/2026/10/9/2026_Delaware_Football_Notes_-_Middle_Tennessee.pdf?timestamp=20261009073210", "reference_lineup": "Official Oct13 game notes pp17,32-39,68; latest five-game starting-lineup log; Minicucci started first4 then Archield LibertyOct2.", "offensive_line": [ "Anthony Caccese", "Mustafa Kanneh", "Steven Demboski", "Chandler Telfaire", "Noah Rosahac" ], "status": "REVIEW COMPLETE / QB STATUS CONDITIONAL" }, { "team_id": "2393", "team": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "side": "home", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Roman Gagliano" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Roman Gagliano", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Antonio Martin Jr.", "Terrence Brown Jr." ], "availability": [ { "player": "Antonio Martin Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Terrence Brown Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Cam\u2019ron Lacy", "Neo Clifton", "Markus Allen", "AJ Jones" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Cam\u2019ron Lacy", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Neo Clifton", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Markus Allen", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "AJ Jones", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Hogan Wasson", "Tayvion Galloway" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Hogan Wasson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Tayvion Galloway", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Roman Gagliano" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Roman Gagliano", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Antonio Martin Jr.", "Terrence Brown Jr." ], "availability": [ { "player": "Antonio Martin Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Terrence Brown Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Cam\u2019ron Lacy", "Neo Clifton", "Markus Allen", "AJ Jones" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Cam\u2019ron Lacy", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Neo Clifton", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Markus Allen", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "AJ Jones", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Hogan Wasson", "Tayvion Galloway" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Hogan Wasson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Tayvion Galloway", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [], "overlap": "Single covered QB trigger; no RB/WR/TE penalty identified or stacked. QB passing loss not deducted again from receivers.", "status": "No trigger identified" }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Current role holders and material committee/receivingTE contributors reviewed. Routine rotations and offseason transfers are not availability deductions. No evidence supports other current covered-role absence.", "official_depth_source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/bluehens.com/documents/2026/10/12/MT_vs_Delaware.pdf?timestamp=20261012081922", "reference_lineup": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "offensive_line": [ "Brennan Smith", "Chris Moreno", "Trevaris Edwards", "Quentin Butler", "Reese Tripp" ], "status": "REVIEW COMPLETE / NO TRIGGER IDENTIFIED" } ], "release_gate": "Pending robust survival of both QB endpoints and normal gates; no predetermined outcome", "decision": "No live promotion before prices and all gates", "defense_protection_inventory": "Official game notes defensive depth and current statistics retained; no independent justified turnover/field-position/tempo conversion. Do not automatically raise opponent points.", "offensive_line_review": [ { "team": "Delaware Blue Hens", "line": [ "Anthony Caccese", "Mustafa Kanneh", "Steven Demboski", "Chandler Telfaire", "Noah Rosahac" ], "assessment": "Official current personnel/starts reviewed; game-day limitations not individually certified. No invented incremental adjustment." }, { "team": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "line": [ "Brennan Smith", "Chris Moreno", "Trevaris Edwards", "Quentin Butler", "Reese Tripp" ], "assessment": "Official current personnel/starts reviewed; game-day limitations not individually certified. No invented incremental adjustment." } ], "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Delaware quarterback availability unresolved", "detail": "Minicucci missed prior game; replacement Archield has19career college attempts. Preserve healthy-return and unavailable -3branches; no current OUT claim. No unconditional failure preselected: all availability endpoints, adverse opponent-offense bound and existing stress/gates must survive. No endpoint survival certifies actual QB status.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ] }, { "event_id": "401871053", "identity": { "id": "401871053", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3662", "fullName": "AmFirst Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Jacksonville", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2229", "away_name": "Florida International Panthers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "55", "home_name": "Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ] }, "teams": [ { "team_id": "2229", "team": "Florida International Panthers", "side": "away", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "JJ Kohl", "Zach Marker" ], "availability": [ { "player": "JJ Kohl", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Zach Marker", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Anthony Carrie", "Devonte Lyons" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Anthony Carrie", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Devonte Lyons", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Greg Gaines III", "Maguire Anderson", "Kyle McNeal", "Jojo Stone", "Eric Nelson Jr." ], "availability": [ { "player": "Greg Gaines III", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Maguire Anderson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Kyle McNeal", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jojo Stone", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Eric Nelson Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Jackson Verdugo", "James Resar" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jackson Verdugo", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "James Resar", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "JJ Kohl", "Zach Marker" ], "availability": [ { "player": "JJ Kohl", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Zach Marker", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Anthony Carrie", "Devonte Lyons" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Anthony Carrie", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Devonte Lyons", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Greg Gaines III", "Maguire Anderson", "Kyle McNeal", "Jojo Stone", "Eric Nelson Jr." ], "availability": [ { "player": "Greg Gaines III", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Maguire Anderson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Kyle McNeal", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jojo Stone", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Eric Nelson Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Jackson Verdugo", "James Resar" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jackson Verdugo", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "James Resar", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [], "overlap": "Single covered QB trigger; no RB/WR/TE penalty identified or stacked. QB passing loss not deducted again from receivers.", "status": "No trigger identified" }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Current role holders and material committee/receivingTE contributors reviewed. Routine rotations and offseason transfers are not availability deductions. No evidence supports other current covered-role absence.", "official_depth_source": "https://jaxstatesports.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/GameNotesFB26GameSixJaxState.pdf", "reference_lineup": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "offensive_line": [ "Jeremy Smith", "Antonio Tripp Jr.", "Daveion Harley", "Zaire Flournoy", "Nickolas Molina" ], "status": "REVIEW COMPLETE / NO TRIGGER IDENTIFIED" }, { "team_id": "55", "team": "Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "side": "home", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Caden Creel", "Jack Moran", "Kadyn Palmer" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Caden Creel", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jack Moran", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Kadyn Palmer", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Jalen Likely", "Lucas Farrington", "Khristian Lando", "Cedric Kouemi" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jalen Likely", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Lucas Farrington", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Khristian Lando", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Cedric Kouemi", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Deondre Johnson", "Darius Cannon", "Ronnel Johnson", "Jamill Williams" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Deondre Johnson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Darius Cannon", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Ronnel Johnson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jamill Williams", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Luke Gilbert", "David Alpers III", "Jameson Scissum" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Luke Gilbert", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "David Alpers III", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jameson Scissum", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Caden Creel", "Jack Moran", "Kadyn Palmer" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Caden Creel", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jack Moran", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Kadyn Palmer", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Jalen Likely", "Lucas Farrington", "Khristian Lando", "Cedric Kouemi" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jalen Likely", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Lucas Farrington", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Khristian Lando", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Cedric Kouemi", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Deondre Johnson", "Darius Cannon", "Ronnel Johnson", "Jamill Williams" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Deondre Johnson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Darius Cannon", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Ronnel Johnson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jamill Williams", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Luke Gilbert", "David Alpers III", "Jameson Scissum" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Luke Gilbert", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "David Alpers III", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jameson Scissum", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [], "overlap": "Single covered QB trigger; no RB/WR/TE penalty identified or stacked. QB passing loss not deducted again from receivers.", "status": "No trigger identified" }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Current role holders and material committee/receivingTE contributors reviewed. Routine rotations and offseason transfers are not availability deductions. No evidence supports other current covered-role absence.", "official_depth_source": "https://jaxstatesports.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/Game7-FIU.pdf", "reference_lineup": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "offensive_line": [ "Jeremiah Orr", "Amarii Atchison", "Lance Johnson", "Hadine Diaby", "Lucas Mrachkovskiy", "Ryan Walker", "Cam Stancil" ], "status": "REVIEW COMPLETE / NO TRIGGER IDENTIFIED" } ], "release_gate": "Existing gates retained", "decision": "No live promotion before prices and all gates", "defense_protection_inventory": "Official game notes defensive depth and current statistics retained; no independent justified turnover/field-position/tempo conversion. Do not automatically raise opponent points.", "offensive_line_review": [ { "team": "Florida International Panthers", "line": [ "Jeremy Smith", "Antonio Tripp Jr.", "Daveion Harley", "Zaire Flournoy", "Nickolas Molina" ], "assessment": "Official current personnel/starts reviewed; game-day limitations not individually certified. No invented incremental adjustment." }, { "team": "Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "line": [ "Jeremiah Orr", "Amarii Atchison", "Lance Johnson", "Hadine Diaby", "Lucas Mrachkovskiy", "Ryan Walker", "Cam Stancil" ], "assessment": "Official current personnel/starts reviewed; game-day limitations not individually certified. No invented incremental adjustment." } ], "risks": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "College final lineup and short-week uncertainty", "detail": "No identified current unavailable covered starter in official notes. Both six-day turnarounds verified; coach explains planned preparation. Routine future lineup confirmation is not an invented medium player absence.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ] } ], "trade_reviews": [], "trade_screen": { "status": "NO VERIFIED IN-SEASON TRADE IN CURRENT FOOTBALL SLATE", "date_eastern": "2026-10-13", "NFL": "No current NFLgame; no game-specific forecast to adjust.", "NCAA": "All four current official roster/game-note sources screened. Documented portal additions are offseason transfers, not verified in-season trades. No two-party trade transaction found; no automatic -3.", "offensive_pathway": "No qualifying verified transaction; no score delta applied.", "defensive_pathway": "No qualifying verified transaction; no opponent-score conversion applied.", "uncertainty": "Review bound to current-slate clubs and official source set; not a claim no NFL transaction occurred league-wide." }, "empty_slates": { "NFL": 0, "FCS": 0 }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": "All four teams reviewed via current official role/availability evidence", "Gideon Marsh": "Conditional exact -3scenarios; no player coefficient invented" }, "nonblocking_limitations": [ "College final inactive lists unavailable at early research cutoff; Delaware QB uncertainty explicitly gates PASS.", "Advanced routes/pressure/protection data unavailable, never fabricated." ], "engine_input_limitation": "2024DelawareFCS retained distinct from FBS; no fabricated college transition coefficient." }, "supplement": { "created_utc": "2026-10-13T05:48:56.354322+00:00", "price_requests": false, "status": "READY FOR PARENT FREEZE; conditional only", "events": [ { "event_id": "401871067", "identity": { "id": "401871067", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3725", "fullName": "Johnny \"Red\" Floyd Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Murfreesboro", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "48", "away_name": "Delaware Blue Hens", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2393", "home_name": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "home_margin": 2.25, "total": 50.29545454545455, "gate": "PENDING PRICE/STRESS GATES: evaluate both healthy-return base and conditional -3 endpoint; PASS if any required gate fails", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "Conditional Minicucci-unavailable sensitivity, NOT confirmed OUT. Healthy-return case retains baseline.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 24.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "home_selection": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 50.29545454545455, "under_selection_total": 53.29545454545455 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "Own-side downside uses Delaware-3branch; when selecting Middle Tennessee, opponent Delaware upper endpoint is unchanged base. No independently justified additional opponent scoring increase; normal engine stress allowance still required." }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "home_margin": 8.425485603195554, "total": 50.31504943105839, "gate": "PENDING PRICE/STRESS GATES: evaluate both healthy-return base and conditional -3 endpoint; PASS if any required gate fails", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "Conditional Minicucci-unavailable sensitivity, NOT confirmed OUT. Healthy-return case retains baseline.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 20.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "home_selection": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 50.31504943105839, "under_selection_total": 53.31504943105839 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "Own-side downside uses Delaware-3branch; when selecting Middle Tennessee, opponent Delaware upper endpoint is unchanged base. No independently justified additional opponent scoring increase; normal engine stress allowance still required." }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "home_margin": 0.5625000000000036, "total": 51.34583333333333, "gate": "PENDING PRICE/STRESS GATES: evaluate both healthy-return base and conditional -3 endpoint; PASS if any required gate fails", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "Conditional Minicucci-unavailable sensitivity, NOT confirmed OUT. Healthy-return case retains baseline.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "home_selection": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 51.34583333333333, "under_selection_total": 54.34583333333333 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "Own-side downside uses Delaware-3branch; when selecting Middle Tennessee, opponent Delaware upper endpoint is unchanged base. No independently justified additional opponent scoring increase; normal engine stress allowance still required." }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "home_margin": 0.5625000000000036, "total": 51.34583333333333, "gate": "PENDING PRICE/STRESS GATES: evaluate both healthy-return base and conditional -3 endpoint; PASS if any required gate fails", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "Conditional Minicucci-unavailable sensitivity, NOT confirmed OUT. Healthy-return case retains baseline.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "home_selection": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 51.34583333333333, "under_selection_total": 54.34583333333333 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "Own-side downside uses Delaware-3branch; when selecting Middle Tennessee, opponent Delaware upper endpoint is unchanged base. No independently justified additional opponent scoring increase; normal engine stress allowance still required." } }, "production_scenario": "CONDITIONAL AVAILABILITY SENSITIVITY / NOT CONFIRMED OUT", "scenario_choice_by_team": { "away": "Minicucci-unavailable conditional -3; healthy-return base retained", "home": "No trigger" }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Delaware quarterback availability unresolved", "detail": "Minicucci missed prior game; replacement Archield has19career college attempts. Preserve healthy-return and unavailable -3branches; no current OUT claim. No unconditional failure preselected: all availability endpoints, adverse opponent-offense bound and existing stress/gates must survive. No endpoint survival certifies actual QB status.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "Delaware current QB unresolved: official prior injury, first-career Archield start. Human -3conditional only; two completed-season and current comparisons retained. Remaining covered roles reviewed without supported triggers.", "Gideon Marsh": "All four base scores loaded unchanged from latest shared cutoff; unrounded conditional -3affects only Delaware. ON/OFF same arithmetic; effect on winner disagreement retained." }, "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json" }, { "event_id": "401871053", "identity": { "id": "401871053", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3662", "fullName": "AmFirst Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Jacksonville", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2229", "away_name": "Florida International Panthers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "55", "home_name": "Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "home_margin": 1.510780885780882, "total": 48.83770396270396, "gate": "Pending existing model/stress/market gates; no new personnel deduction", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "No supported current qualifying availability trigger.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "home_selection": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 48.83770396270396, "under_selection_total": 48.83770396270396 } }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "home_margin": 10.791832324931342, "total": 49.6556452215006, "gate": "Pending existing model/stress/market gates; no new personnel deduction", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "No supported current qualifying availability trigger.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "home_selection": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 49.6556452215006, "under_selection_total": 49.6556452215006 } }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "home_margin": 1.3107692307692318, "total": 49.74679487179487, "gate": "Pending existing model/stress/market gates; no new personnel deduction", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "No supported current qualifying availability trigger.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "home_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 49.74679487179487, "under_selection_total": 49.74679487179487 } }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "home_margin": 1.3107692307692318, "total": 49.74679487179487, "gate": "Pending existing model/stress/market gates; no new personnel deduction", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "No supported current qualifying availability trigger.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "home_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 49.74679487179487, "under_selection_total": 49.74679487179487 } } }, "production_scenario": "NO TRIGGER", "scenario_choice_by_team": { "away": "No trigger", "home": "No trigger" }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "College final lineup and short-week uncertainty", "detail": "No identified current unavailable covered starter in official notes. Both six-day turnarounds verified; coach explains planned preparation. Routine future lineup confirmation is not an invented medium player absence.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "FIU Kohl/Carrie/main WRs/Verdugo and Jax Creel/Likely+committee/main WRs/Gilbert reviewed. Gilbert is primary receivingTE despite nominal backup depth. No supported availability deductions; final lineup remains unconfirmed.", "Gideon Marsh": "All four base scores loaded unchanged from latest shared cutoff; unrounded conditional -3affects only Delaware. ON/OFF same arithmetic; effect on winner disagreement retained." }, "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json" } ] } }