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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.8996913580246915, "mean_margin_error": 0.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 5.799382716049383, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.8996913580246915, "mean_margin_error": 0.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 5.799382716049383, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "adjustedScore": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-12T05:49:15.734012+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-12", "sport": "MLB", "competition": "MLB", "eventId": "401908031", "away": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "home": "Milwaukee Brewers", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Los Angeles Dodgers 4, Milwaukee Brewers 7", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+134) / +1.5 (-162)", "ml": "-136 / +113", "total": "7; O +103 / U -124", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 4.5 / 4.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/12/los-angeles-dodgers-milwaukee-brewers-401908031-october-12-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908031", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.553836+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 5.092592592592593, 4.216049382716049 ], "current_rates": [ 4.944444444444445, 3.7037037037037037 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 4.9753086419753085, 3.9135802469135803 ], "current_rates": [ 5.135802469135802, 3.814814814814815 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.923080632716049, "mean_margin_error": 0.7516782407407412, "mean_total_error": 5.846161265432098, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.424234623832983, 3.6617286917367746 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.424234623832983, 3.6617286917367746 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.424234623832983, 3.6617286917367746 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4951, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-12T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "558d57811aef4fcdb3045c780700251af391054b492e0fa0acd4c1a541cb5524" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.131554321838614, "mean_margin_error": 0.7740103616040193, "mean_total_error": 4.263108643677228, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.8996913580246915, "mean_margin_error": 0.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 5.799382716049383, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.8996913580246915, "mean_margin_error": 0.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 5.799382716049383, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "adjustedScore": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-12T05:49:15.734012+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 4.0, 7.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-12&endDate=2026-10-13", "retrieved": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.612515+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-12&endDate=2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 849812, "verified_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.612515+00:00", "scores": [ 4, 7 ], "status": "Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-12&endDate=2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 849812, "verified_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.612515+00:00", "scores": [ 4, 7 ], "status": "Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892486", "before": { "date": "2026-10-12", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892486", "away": "Ottawa Senators", "home": "New Jersey Devils", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-225) / -1.5 (+185)", "ml": "+114 / -135", "total": "5.5; O -125 / U +105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/12/ottawa-senators-new-jersey-devils-401892486-october-12-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892486", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.496784+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1384146341463417, 2.897032520325203 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1384146341463417, 2.897032520325203 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1384146341463417, 2.897032520325203 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.3902439024390243, 3 ], "current_rates": [ 3, 2.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 2.8048780487804876, 3.097560975609756 ], "current_rates": [ 2.5, 3.5 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3478452678757558, "mean_margin_error": 2.6956905357515115, "mean_total_error": 1.5761283093600158, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2195049999999998, 5.219505 ], "home": [ 0.8719450000000002, 4.871945 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0909303314310934, 2.787967005714272 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0909303314310934, 2.787967005714272 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0909303314310934, 2.787967005714272 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2855, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T23:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3b0adb131271c75a77cc788f19735b2d2d53f6aceeae8ec00c0d22392f6a8570" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3332969922245195, "mean_margin_error": 2.666593984449039, "mean_total_error": 1.516383961247979, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2195049999999998, 5.219505 ], "home": [ 0.8719450000000002, 4.871945 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.35365, "pa": 2.9878, "official_team_id": 9, "official_team_name": "Ottawa Senators" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1, "official_team_name": "New Jersey Devils" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4105683333333332, "mean_margin_error": 2.8211366666666664, "mean_total_error": 1.6707366666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2195049999999998, 5.219505 ], "home": [ 0.8719450000000002, 4.871945 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.35365, "pa": 2.9878, "official_team_id": 9, "official_team_name": "Ottawa Senators" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1, "official_team_name": "New Jersey Devils" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4105683333333332, "mean_margin_error": 2.8211366666666664, "mean_total_error": 1.6707366666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2195049999999998, 5.219505 ], "home": [ 0.8719450000000002, 4.871945 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-12T05:49:15.734012+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-12", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892486", "away": "Ottawa Senators", "home": "New Jersey Devils", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Ottawa Senators 4, New Jersey Devils 1", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-225) / -1.5 (+185)", "ml": "+114 / -135", "total": "5.5; O -125 / U +105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/12/ottawa-senators-new-jersey-devils-401892486-october-12-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892486", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.496784+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1384146341463417, 2.897032520325203 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1384146341463417, 2.897032520325203 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1384146341463417, 2.897032520325203 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.3902439024390243, 3 ], "current_rates": [ 3, 2.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 2.8048780487804876, 3.097560975609756 ], "current_rates": [ 2.5, 3.5 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3478452678757558, "mean_margin_error": 2.6956905357515115, "mean_total_error": 1.5761283093600158, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2195049999999998, 5.219505 ], "home": [ 0.8719450000000002, 4.871945 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0909303314310934, 2.787967005714272 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0909303314310934, 2.787967005714272 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0909303314310934, 2.787967005714272 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2855, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T23:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3b0adb131271c75a77cc788f19735b2d2d53f6aceeae8ec00c0d22392f6a8570" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3332969922245195, "mean_margin_error": 2.666593984449039, "mean_total_error": 1.516383961247979, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2195049999999998, 5.219505 ], "home": [ 0.8719450000000002, 4.871945 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.35365, "pa": 2.9878, "official_team_id": 9, "official_team_name": "Ottawa Senators" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1, "official_team_name": "New Jersey Devils" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4105683333333332, "mean_margin_error": 2.8211366666666664, "mean_total_error": 1.6707366666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2195049999999998, 5.219505 ], "home": [ 0.8719450000000002, 4.871945 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.35365, "pa": 2.9878, "official_team_id": 9, "official_team_name": "Ottawa Senators" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1, "official_team_name": "New Jersey Devils" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4105683333333332, "mean_margin_error": 2.8211366666666664, "mean_total_error": 1.6707366666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2195049999999998, 5.219505 ], "home": [ 0.8719450000000002, 4.871945 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-12T05:49:15.734012+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 4.0, 1.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12", "retrieved": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.625854+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12", "official_event_id": 2026020088, "verified_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.625854+00:00", "scores": [ 4, 1 ], "status": "OFF / Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12", "official_event_id": 2026020088, "verified_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.625854+00:00", "scores": [ 4, 1 ], "status": "OFF / Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401898402", "before": { "date": "2026-10-12", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898402", "away": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "home": "Atlanta Hawks", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+7.5 (-110) / -7.5 (-110)", "ml": "+230 / -285", "total": "222.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 117.5 / 113.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/12/oklahoma-city-thunder-atlanta-hawks-401898402-october-12-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898402", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.500796+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 116.03658536585365, 114.67073170731707 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.03658536585365, 114.67073170731707 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.03658536585365, 114.67073170731707 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 119.02439024390245, 107.8780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 118.46341463414635, 116.04878048780488 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.69817073170732, "mean_margin_error": 6.306910569105692, "mean_total_error": 21.274390243902435, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.536585, 137.536585 ], "home": [ 93.17073500000001, 133.170735 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 117.78008340782701, 112.97153732564136 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.78008340782701, 112.97153732564136 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.78008340782701, 112.97153732564136 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2797, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-12T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa90b1c3f9cc2c33b6720a7fa6bc2faf0a752c2f4516b125280a4621fb7efbe4" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.176706670504595, "mean_margin_error": 7.034104665170351, "mean_total_error": 18.4100562470998, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.536585, 137.536585 ], "home": [ 93.17073500000001, 133.170735 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.02439, "pa": 107.87805 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 118.46342, "pa": 116.04878 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.200203666666669, "mean_margin_error": 7.310977333333336, "mean_total_error": 21.274390666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.536585, 137.536585 ], "home": [ 93.17073500000001, 133.170735 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.02439, "pa": 107.87805 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 118.46342, "pa": 116.04878 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.200203666666669, "mean_margin_error": 7.310977333333336, "mean_total_error": 21.274390666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.536585, 137.536585 ], "home": [ 93.17073500000001, 133.170735 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "adjustedScore": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-12T05:49:15.734012+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 119.02439024390245, 107.8780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 118.46341463414635, 116.04878048780488 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.69817073170732, "mean_margin_error": 6.306910569105692, "mean_total_error": 21.274390243902435, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.536585, 137.536585 ], "home": [ 93.17073500000001, 133.170735 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 117.78008340782701, 112.97153732564136 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.78008340782701, 112.97153732564136 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.78008340782701, 112.97153732564136 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2797, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-12T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa90b1c3f9cc2c33b6720a7fa6bc2faf0a752c2f4516b125280a4621fb7efbe4" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.176706670504595, "mean_margin_error": 7.034104665170351, "mean_total_error": 18.4100562470998, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.536585, 137.536585 ], "home": [ 93.17073500000001, 133.170735 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 114.060975, 115.54878 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.060975, 115.54878 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.060975, 115.54878 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.231707317073171, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 3.8333333333333335, 2.3333333333333335 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.317073170731707, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 3, 1.8 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3478452678757558, "mean_margin_error": 2.6956905357515115, "mean_total_error": 1.5761283093600158, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0426799999999998, 5.04268 ], "home": [ 1.10975, 5.10975 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54, "official_team_name": "Vegas Golden Knights" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30, "official_team_name": "Minnesota Wild" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4105683333333332, "mean_margin_error": 2.8211366666666664, "mean_total_error": 1.6707366666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0426799999999998, 5.04268 ], "home": [ 1.10975, 5.10975 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54, "official_team_name": "Vegas Golden Knights" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30, "official_team_name": "Minnesota Wild" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4105683333333332, "mean_margin_error": 2.8211366666666664, "mean_total_error": 1.6707366666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0426799999999998, 5.04268 ], "home": [ 1.10975, 5.10975 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.052716984961, 3.165765768089014 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.052716984961, 3.165765768089014 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.052716984961, 3.165765768089014 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54, "official_team_name": "Vegas Golden Knights" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30, "official_team_name": "Minnesota Wild" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4105683333333332, "mean_margin_error": 2.8211366666666664, "mean_total_error": 1.6707366666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0426799999999998, 5.04268 ], "home": [ 1.10975, 5.10975 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54, "official_team_name": "Vegas Golden Knights" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30, "official_team_name": "Minnesota Wild" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4105683333333332, "mean_margin_error": 2.8211366666666664, "mean_total_error": 1.6707366666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0426799999999998, 5.04268 ], "home": [ 1.10975, 5.10975 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-12T05:49:15.734012+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 2.0, 4.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12", "retrieved": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.625854+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12", "official_event_id": 2026020089, "verified_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.625854+00:00", "scores": [ 2, 4 ], "status": "OFF / Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12", "official_event_id": 2026020089, "verified_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.625854+00:00", "scores": [ 2, 4 ], "status": "OFF / Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401908023", "before": { "date": "2026-10-12", "sport": "MLB", "competition": "MLB", "eventId": "401908023", "away": "Cleveland Guardians", "home": "Tampa Bay Rays", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-157) / -1.5 (+130)", "ml": "+142 / -172", "total": "6.5; O -122 / U +101", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 4.0 / 4.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/12/cleveland-guardians-tampa-bay-rays-401908023-october-12-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908023", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.803059+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 3.9691358024691357, 4.006172839506172 ], "current_rates": [ 4.185185185185185, 4.117283950617284 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 4.407407407407407, 4.216049382716049 ], "current_rates": [ 4.54320987654321, 4.012345679012346 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.923080632716049, "mean_margin_error": 0.7516782407407412, "mean_total_error": 5.846161265432098, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1237759923355632, 3.5547010587274968 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1237759923355632, 3.5547010587274968 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1237759923355632, 3.5547010587274968 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4951, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-12T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "558d57811aef4fcdb3045c780700251af391054b492e0fa0acd4c1a541cb5524" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.131554321838614, "mean_margin_error": 0.7740103616040193, "mean_total_error": 4.263108643677228, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.8996913580246915, "mean_margin_error": 0.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 5.799382716049383, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.8996913580246915, "mean_margin_error": 0.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 5.799382716049383, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjustedScore": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-12T05:49:15.734012+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-12", "sport": "MLB", "competition": "MLB", "eventId": "401908023", "away": "Cleveland Guardians", "home": "Tampa Bay Rays", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Cleveland Guardians 7, Tampa Bay Rays 3", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-157) / -1.5 (+130)", "ml": "+142 / -172", "total": "6.5; O -122 / U +101", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 4.0 / 4.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/12/cleveland-guardians-tampa-bay-rays-401908023-october-12-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908023", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.803059+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 3.9691358024691357, 4.006172839506172 ], "current_rates": [ 4.185185185185185, 4.117283950617284 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 4.407407407407407, 4.216049382716049 ], "current_rates": [ 4.54320987654321, 4.012345679012346 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.923080632716049, "mean_margin_error": 0.7516782407407412, "mean_total_error": 5.846161265432098, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1237759923355632, 3.5547010587274968 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1237759923355632, 3.5547010587274968 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1237759923355632, 3.5547010587274968 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4951, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-12T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "558d57811aef4fcdb3045c780700251af391054b492e0fa0acd4c1a541cb5524" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.131554321838614, "mean_margin_error": 0.7740103616040193, "mean_total_error": 4.263108643677228, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.8996913580246915, "mean_margin_error": 0.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 5.799382716049383, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.8996913580246915, "mean_margin_error": 0.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 5.799382716049383, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjustedScore": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-12T05:49:15.734012+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 7.0, 3.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-12&endDate=2026-10-13", "retrieved": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.612515+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-12&endDate=2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 849820, "verified_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.612515+00:00", "scores": [ 7, 3 ], "status": "Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-12&endDate=2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 849820, "verified_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.612515+00:00", "scores": [ 7, 3 ], "status": "Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401872994", "before": { "date": "2026-10-12", "sport": "NFL", "competition": "NFL", "eventId": "401872994", "away": "Buffalo Bills", "home": "Los Angeles Rams", "startTime": "8:15 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+3 (+100) / -3 (-120)", "ml": "+145 / -175", "total": "54.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 22.0 / 23.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/12/buffalo-bills-los-angeles-rams-401872994-october-12-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872994", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.751143+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Canonical human sensitivity: Palmer confirmed OUT but material-role classification conditional; Moore not assumed absent; Ferguson qualifying receiving-TE IR. Support-only Palmer zero and Moore isolated/joint endpoints retained. Statistical player effect unestimated.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Joshua Palmer", "team": "Buffalo Bills", "side": "away", "condition": "confirmed unavailable; deduction conditional on material receiving role", "replacement": "Skyler Bell", "isolated_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "DJ Moore", "team": "Buffalo Bills", "side": "away", "condition": "conditional unavailable or materially limited; QUESTIONABLE not OUT", "replacement": "Skyler Bell", "isolated_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Terrance Ferguson", "team": "Los Angeles Rams", "side": "home", "condition": "confirmed unavailable: IR October2", "replacement": "Colby Parkinson", "isolated_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 17, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 28.294117647058822, 21.470588235294116 ], "current_rates": [ 31.75, 26.75 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 17, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 30.470588235294116, 20.352941176470587 ], "current_rates": [ 21.25, 20.75 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NFL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 12, "hits": 9, "accuracy": 0.75, "wilson95": [ 0.46769466506643426, 0.9110583316059453 ], "skips": 1, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 6.544046945701358, "mean_margin_error": 10.658682126696833, "mean_total_error": 9.65986990950226, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 11.105834793946649, 39.10583479394665 ], "home": [ 12.345198940536136, 40.345198940536136 ], "team_allowance": 14, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 122.92072999999999, 114.54878 ], "adjusted_score": [ 122.92072999999999, 114.54878 ], "conditional_score": [ 122.92072999999999, 114.54878 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.82927, "pa": 111.52439 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 117.57317, "pa": 126.01219 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.200203666666669, "mean_margin_error": 7.310977333333336, "mean_total_error": 21.274390666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 102.92072999999999, 142.92073 ], "home": [ 94.54878, 134.54878 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 122.92072999999999, 114.54878 ], "adjusted_score": [ 122.92072999999999, 114.54878 ], "conditional_score": [ 122.92072999999999, 114.54878 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.82927, "pa": 111.52439 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 117.57317, "pa": 126.01219 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.200203666666669, "mean_margin_error": 7.310977333333336, "mean_total_error": 21.274390666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 102.92072999999999, 142.92073 ], "home": [ 94.54878, 134.54878 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 122.92072999999999, 114.54878 ], "adjustedScore": [ 122.92072999999999, 114.54878 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-12T05:49:15.734012+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 109.0, 119.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612762/schedule", "retrieved": "2026-10-13T05:38:18.517656+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612762/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-13T05:38:18.517656+00:00", "scores": [ 109, 119 ], "status": "Completed W/L result", "stage": "Preseason", "evidence": "Oct 12 vs SAS W 109 - 119" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612762/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-13T05:38:18.517656+00:00", "scores": [ 109, 119 ], "status": "Completed W/L result", "stage": "Preseason", "evidence": "Oct 12 vs SAS W 109 - 119" }, "applied": false } ], "summary": { "events": 10, "wins": 0, "losses": 0, "no_grade": 10 }, "preservation": "Original Oct12 site/ZIP unchanged; original selection, line and freeze preserved." }