{ "status": "PASS", "created_utc": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "edition_configuration": "OFF", "user_authorized_standalone_OFF_edition": true, "global_default_configuration": "ON", "global_default_changed": false, "freeze_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00", "freeze_sha256": "dfe084cf911d6a9adf92a4db843b559d8e1413dfd7ed52eecaa095380c937e20", "freeze_unchanged": true, "material_status_change": false, "new_forecast_revision_required": false, "market_captured_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:18.449Z", "market_snapshot_sha256": "96584342eb90854d6fcc435556b1e5d0713b1a96e0d9e7d974be6609c784a645", "quote_source_limit": "One paired DraftKings quote via ESPN per event; single-provider quote, not a multi-book average. Quotes are evidence at capture time, not a guarantee of later availability.", "games": [ { "event_id": "401858254", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401858254", "date": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3873", "fullName": "L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Louisville", "state": "KY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "52", "away_name": "Florida State Seminoles", "away_score": 0, "home": "97", "home_name": "Louisville Cardinals", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858254", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.637Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.870Z", "home_line": -3.5, "away_line": 3.5, "home_line_price": -112, "away_line_price": -108, "total": 59.5, "under_line": 59.5, "over_price": -112, "under_price": -108, "home_ml": -180, "away_ml": 150, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true }, "decisions": [ { "event_id": "401858254", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Florida State Seminoles +3.5", "direction": "away", "line": 3.5, "odds": -108, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Base cushion 0.852500 below 3-point OFF floor.", "An applicable availability-plus-adverse or opponent-offense case crosses the spread." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "base_buffer": 0.8524999999999956, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": -2.147500000000008, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 26.5325, 29.180000000000003 ] }, { "name": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 26.5325, 26.180000000000003 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 26.5325, 32.18000000000001 ], "remaining_buffer": -2.147500000000008, "unstressed_buffer": 0.8524999999999956 }, { "name": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 26.5325, 29.180000000000003 ], "remaining_buffer": 0.8524999999999956, "unstressed_buffer": 3.8524999999999956 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 26.5325, 31.188333333333336 ], "remaining_buffer": -1.1558333333333373, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": false, "favorite_survives": false }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858254", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=ACC&sport=Football&conf=ACC&type=report" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.870Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Louisville Keyjuan Brown questionable; -3 inactive branch retained. Kienholz probable expected active; unexpected absence requires new QB review. FSU material Singleton absence uses required -3 human scenario; statistical impact unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": true, "can_reassess_if_selection_survives_both_branches": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": false, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401858254", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "selection": "Under 59.5", "direction": "under", "line": 59.5, "odds": -108, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Base cushion 3.787500 below 4-point OFF floor.", "An applicable availability-plus-adverse case fails the one-point stressed total remainder." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "base_buffer": 3.7874999999999943, "required_buffer": 4, "stressed_buffer": 0.7874999999999943, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 26.5325, 29.180000000000003 ] }, { "name": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 26.5325, 26.180000000000003 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 28.0325, 30.680000000000003 ], "remaining_buffer": 0.7874999999999943, "unstressed_buffer": 3.7874999999999943 }, { "name": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 28.0325, 27.680000000000003 ], "remaining_buffer": 3.7874999999999943, "unstressed_buffer": 6.787499999999994 } ], "opponent_offense": null, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 1, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858254", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=ACC&sport=Football&conf=ACC&type=report" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.870Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Louisville Keyjuan Brown questionable; -3 inactive branch retained. Kienholz probable expected active; unexpected absence requires new QB review. FSU material Singleton absence uses required -3 human scenario; statistical impact unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": true, "can_reassess_if_selection_survives_both_branches": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": false, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" } ], "elapsed": false, "start_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "status": "pre", "tracking_only": false }, { "event_id": "401858487", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401858487", "date": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3765", "fullName": "Husky Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Seattle", "state": "WA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2294", "away_name": "Iowa Hawkeyes", "away_score": 0, "home": "264", "home_name": "Washington Huskies", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858487", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.696Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.897Z", "home_line": -2.5, "away_line": 2.5, "home_line_price": -115, "away_line_price": -105, "total": 41.5, "under_line": 41.5, "over_price": -105, "under_price": -115, "home_ml": -148, "away_ml": 124, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true }, "decisions": [ { "event_id": "401858487", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Iowa Hawkeyes +2.5", "direction": "away", "line": 2.5, "odds": -105, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Actual unresolved Iowa QB branch plus independent adverse stress crosses the selected market; high risk remains.", "An applicable availability-plus-adverse or opponent-offense case crosses the spread.", "Selected projected favorite fails conservative opponent-offense winner test." ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 4.427499999999998, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": -1.5725000000000016, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 24.695, 22.767500000000002 ] }, { "name": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 21.695, 22.767500000000002 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 24.695, 25.767500000000002 ], "remaining_buffer": 1.4274999999999984, "unstressed_buffer": 4.427499999999998 }, { "name": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 21.695, 25.767500000000002 ], "remaining_buffer": -1.5725000000000016, "unstressed_buffer": 1.4274999999999984 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 24.695, 25.196666666666665 ], "remaining_buffer": 1.9983333333333348, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": true, "favorite_survives": false }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858487", "https://hawkeyesports.com/news/2026/10/6/kirk-ferentz-news-conference-transcript-10062026" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.897Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Iowa Hank Brown limited; Hecklinski prepared. Starting-QB availability unresolved. Active and -3 human-only branches retained, but statistical QB effect remains unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED", "can_reassess_if_selection_survives_both_branches": true, "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": false, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401858487", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "selection": "Over 41.5", "direction": "over", "line": 41.5, "odds": -105, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Actual unresolved Iowa QB branch plus independent adverse stress crosses the selected market; high risk remains.", "An applicable availability-plus-adverse case fails the one-point stressed total remainder." ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 5.962500000000006, "required_buffer": 4, "stressed_buffer": -0.037499999999994316, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 24.695, 22.767500000000002 ] }, { "name": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 21.695, 22.767500000000002 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 23.195, 21.267500000000002 ], "remaining_buffer": 2.9625000000000057, "unstressed_buffer": 5.962500000000006 }, { "name": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 20.195, 21.267500000000002 ], "remaining_buffer": -0.037499999999994316, "unstressed_buffer": 2.9625000000000057 } ], "opponent_offense": null, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 1, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858487", "https://hawkeyesports.com/news/2026/10/6/kirk-ferentz-news-conference-transcript-10062026" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.897Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Iowa Hank Brown limited; Hecklinski prepared. Starting-QB availability unresolved. Active and -3 human-only branches retained, but statistical QB effect remains unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED", "can_reassess_if_selection_survives_both_branches": true, "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": false, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" } ], "elapsed": false, "start_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "status": "pre", "tracking_only": false }, { "event_id": "401860922", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401860922", "date": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3905", "fullName": "Maverik Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Logan", "state": "UT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "265", "away_name": "Washington State Cougars", "away_score": 0, "home": "328", "home_name": "Utah State Aggies", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860922", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.697Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.877Z", "home_line": -5.5, "away_line": 5.5, "home_line_price": -108, "away_line_price": -112, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -115, "under_price": -105, "home_ml": -205, "away_ml": 170, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true }, "decisions": [ { "event_id": "401860922", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Washington State Cougars +5.5", "direction": "away", "line": 5.5, "odds": -112, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Known mixed-QB role uncertainty plus stronger frozen USU offense erases more than half the 5.3125-point cushion (2.083333 remains): canonical high-severity threshold. No invented stacked stress required." ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 5.3125, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": 2.083333333333332, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 23.75, 23.9375 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 23.75, 26.9375 ], "remaining_buffer": 2.3125, "unstressed_buffer": 5.3125 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 23.75, 27.166666666666668 ], "remaining_buffer": 2.083333333333332, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": false, "favorite_survives": false }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860922", "https://utahstateaggies.com/story.aspx?file_date=10%2F5%2F2026&filename=football-hosts-washington-state-in-pac-12-home-opener-friday-night", "https://wsucougars.com/news/2026/10/6/washington-state-heads-to-utah-state-for-friday-night-matchup" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.877Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Utah State Hillstead first on depth chart, Brosterhous started last four and both played latest game. Healthy rotation is not injury trigger; mixed-QB opportunity uncertainty remains.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "USU_QB_CHANGE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": false, "branch_gate_note": "Hypothetical future injury branch is not activated by healthy depth displacement; preserve medium mixed-role risk." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401860922", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "selection": "Over 43.5", "direction": "over", "line": 43.5, "odds": -115, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "PASSES predeclared numerical total stress, but newly identified frozen-input current-offense diagnostic erases more than half the cushion. Existing Section5 unresolved high TOTAL-specific risk withholds promotion; this is not a retroactive numerical-gate failure.", "Total assessed independently from side: predeclared three-point adverse total leaves1.1875. Unactivated hypothetical injury branch is not silently treated as current. Mixed healthy QB role plus the new total-specific regime diagnostic is classified high in postfreeze risk review." ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 4.1875, "required_buffer": 4, "stressed_buffer": 1.1875, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 23.75, 23.9375 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 22.25, 22.4375 ], "remaining_buffer": 1.1875, "unstressed_buffer": 4.1875 } ], "opponent_offense": null, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 1, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860922", "https://utahstateaggies.com/story.aspx?file_date=10%2F5%2F2026&filename=football-hosts-washington-state-in-pac-12-home-opener-friday-night", "https://wsucougars.com/news/2026/10/6/washington-state-heads-to-utah-state-for-friday-night-matchup" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.877Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Utah State Hillstead first on depth chart, Brosterhous started last four and both played latest game. Healthy rotation is not injury trigger; mixed-QB opportunity uncertainty remains.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "USU_QB_CHANGE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": false, "branch_gate_note": "Hypothetical future injury branch is not activated by healthy depth displacement; preserve medium mixed-role risk." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "additional_diagnostic": { "predeclared_gate": false, "discovered_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z", "postfreeze_review": true, "unchanged_frozen_means": true, "existing_rule": "Production Standards Section5 high severity: erases more than half modeled edge", "name": "Frozen current USU offense component only", "total": 44.458333333333336, "cushion": 0.9583333333333357, "meaning": "Postprice diagnostic using existing component; not a newly mandatory minimum-total regime stress. Indicates material fragility beyond the registered three-point test.", "publication_recheck_utc": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "discovery_provenance": "Retained postfreeze independent desk discovery; original discovery time preserved; no changed frozen means." }, "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" } ], "elapsed": false, "start_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "status": "pre", "tracking_only": false }, { "event_id": "401864519", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401864519", "date": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3935", "fullName": "CEFCU Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "San Jose", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2751", "away_name": "Wyoming Cowboys", "away_score": 0, "home": "23", "home_name": "San José State Spartans", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864519", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.698Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.853Z", "home_line": -4.5, "away_line": 4.5, "home_line_price": -108, "away_line_price": -112, "total": 42.5, "under_line": 42.5, "over_price": -112, "under_price": -108, "home_ml": -192, "away_ml": 160, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true }, "decisions": [ { "event_id": "401864519", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Wyoming Cowboys +4.5", "direction": "away", "line": 4.5, "odds": -112, "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE", "tier": "Bonus Pick", "eligible": true, "selected": true, "reasons": [ "Passes frozen base-buffer, separate side/total, availability branch and adverse-case requirements; no unresolved high risk." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 3.5324999999999953, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": 0.5324999999999953, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 22.043333333333333, 23.010833333333338 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 22.043333333333333, 26.010833333333338 ], "remaining_buffer": 0.5324999999999953, "unstressed_buffer": 3.5324999999999953 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 22.043333333333333, 23.68166666666667 ], "remaining_buffer": 2.8616666666666646, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": false, "favorite_survives": false }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864519", "https://gowyo.com/news/2026/10/5/football-cowboys-set-for-showdown-with-spartans-on-friday-night.aspx", "https://sjsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/5/spartans-host-wyoming-on-homecoming-presented-by-rotten-robbie" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.853Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401864519", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "selection": "Over 42.5", "direction": "over", "line": 42.5, "odds": -112, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Base cushion 2.554167 below 4-point OFF floor.", "An applicable availability-plus-adverse case fails the one-point stressed total remainder." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 2.5541666666666742, "required_buffer": 4, "stressed_buffer": -0.44583333333332575, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 22.043333333333333, 23.010833333333338 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 20.543333333333333, 21.510833333333338 ], "remaining_buffer": -0.44583333333332575, "unstressed_buffer": 2.5541666666666742 } ], "opponent_offense": null, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 1, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864519", "https://gowyo.com/news/2026/10/5/football-cowboys-set-for-showdown-with-spartans-on-friday-night.aspx", "https://sjsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/5/spartans-host-wyoming-on-homecoming-presented-by-rotten-robbie" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.853Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": false, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" } ], "elapsed": false, "start_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "status": "pre", "tracking_only": false }, { "event_id": "401856826", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401856826", "date": "2026-10-10T02:15Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3801", "fullName": "LaVell Edwards Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Provo", "state": "UT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "66", "away_name": "Iowa State Cyclones", "away_score": 0, "home": "252", "home_name": "BYU Cougars", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856826", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.698Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.851Z", "home_line": -10.5, "away_line": 10.5, "home_line_price": -108, "away_line_price": -112, "total": 46.5, "under_line": 46.5, "over_price": -108, "under_price": -112, "home_ml": -425, "away_ml": 330, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true }, "decisions": [ { "event_id": "401856826", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Iowa State Cyclones +10.5", "direction": "away", "line": 10.5, "odds": -112, "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE", "tier": "Pick of the Day", "eligible": true, "selected": true, "reasons": [ "Passes frozen base-buffer, separate side/total, availability branch and adverse-case requirements; no unresolved high risk." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "base_buffer": 4.677115384615387, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": 1.6771153846153872, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 27.76224358974359 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 30.76224358974359 ], "remaining_buffer": 1.6771153846153872, "unstressed_buffer": 4.677115384615387 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 29.35230769230769 ], "remaining_buffer": 3.087051282051288, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": false, "favorite_survives": false }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856826", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=B12&sport=Football&conf=B12&type=report", "https://byucougars.com/news/2026/10/5/byu-football-game-week-2026-iowa-state" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.851Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "BYU lead back Martin OUT; -3 human-only overlay applied with Moa overlap review. Statistical replacement effect and listed defensive absences unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "BYU_JOINT", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": false, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T02:15Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401856826", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "selection": "Over 46.5", "direction": "over", "line": 46.5, "odds": -108, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Base cushion 3.201603 below 4-point OFF floor.", "An applicable availability-plus-adverse case fails the one-point stressed total remainder." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "base_buffer": 3.201602564102572, "required_buffer": 4, "stressed_buffer": 0.20160256410257205, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 27.76224358974359 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 20.439358974358978, 26.26224358974359 ], "remaining_buffer": 0.20160256410257205, "unstressed_buffer": 3.201602564102572 } ], "opponent_offense": null, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 1, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856826", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=B12&sport=Football&conf=B12&type=report", "https://byucougars.com/news/2026/10/5/byu-football-game-week-2026-iowa-state" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.851Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "BYU lead back Martin OUT; -3 human-only overlay applied with Moa overlap review. Statistical replacement effect and listed defensive absences unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "BYU_JOINT", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": false, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": false, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T02:15Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" } ], "elapsed": false, "start_utc": "2026-10-10T02:15Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T02:15Z", "status": "pre", "tracking_only": false }, { "event_id": "401868329", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868329", "date": "2026-10-09T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "4582", "fullName": "ASU Football Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Montgomery", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "50", "away_name": "Florida A&M Rattlers", "away_score": 0, "home": "2011", "home_name": "Alabama State Hornets", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868329", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.898Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.978Z", "home_line": -14.5, "away_line": 14.5, "home_line_price": -102, "away_line_price": -122, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -102, "under_price": -122, "home_ml": -650, "away_ml": 438, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true }, "decisions": [ { "event_id": "401868329", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Alabama State Hornets -14.5", "direction": "home", "line": -14.5, "odds": -102, "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE", "tier": "Free Pick", "eligible": true, "selected": true, "reasons": [ "Passes frozen base-buffer, separate side/total, availability branch and adverse-case requirements; no unresolved high risk.", "Two unresolved medium risks: at least one-tier downgrade; retained implementation restricts promotion to Free Pick." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "base_buffer": 13.9925, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": 7.9925, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 13.868333333333332, 42.36083333333333 ] }, { "name": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "pair": [ 13.868333333333332, 39.36083333333333 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 16.868333333333332, 42.36083333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 10.9925, "unstressed_buffer": 13.9925 }, { "name": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 16.868333333333332, 39.36083333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 7.9925, "unstressed_buffer": 10.9925 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 16.835, 42.36083333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 11.025833333333331, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": true, "favorite_survives": true }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868329", "https://famuathletics.com/news/2026/10/8/football-florida-am-heads-to-montgomery-for-swac-matchup-with-alabama-state.aspx", "https://bamastatesports.com/sports/football/roster/aaron-frye/9479" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.978Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Alabama State Frye started last two; Body availability/reason not established. No inferred injury deduction; -3 conditional branch retained.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": false, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Official NWS 15 mph wind with rain chance rising to 42%; unresolved weather sensitivity", "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T16:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401868329", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "selection": "Over 47.5", "direction": "over", "line": 47.5, "odds": -102, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Passes registered numerical total stress at current 47.5, but retained independent total-specific risk remains: frozen current-offense plus conditional QB total 49.966667 leaves only 2.466667; more than half the conditional cushion is erased, and the additional diagnostic with three-point adverse swing reaches 46.966667. Existing Section 5 high-risk withholding, not retroactive numerical-gate failure. Weather risk remains.", "Two unresolved medium risks: at least one-tier downgrade; retained implementation restricts promotion to Free Pick." ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "base_buffer": 8.729166666666664, "required_buffer": 4, "stressed_buffer": 2.7291666666666643, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 13.868333333333332, 42.36083333333333 ] }, { "name": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "pair": [ 13.868333333333332, 39.36083333333333 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 12.368333333333332, 40.86083333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 5.729166666666664, "unstressed_buffer": 8.729166666666664 }, { "name": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 12.368333333333332, 37.86083333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 2.7291666666666643, "unstressed_buffer": 5.729166666666664 } ], "opponent_offense": null, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 1, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868329", "https://famuathletics.com/news/2026/10/8/football-florida-am-heads-to-montgomery-for-swac-matchup-with-alabama-state.aspx", "https://bamastatesports.com/sports/football/roster/aaron-frye/9479" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.978Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Alabama State Frye started last two; Body availability/reason not established. No inferred injury deduction; -3 conditional branch retained.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": false, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Official NWS 15 mph wind with rain chance rising to 42%; unresolved weather sensitivity", "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "additional_diagnostic": { "discovered_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z", "postfreeze_review": true, "predeclared_gate": false, "unchanged_frozen_means": true, "source": "postprice-tu-second-review.json", "current_offense_home": 39.09833333333333, "with_conditional_QB_total": 49.96666666666666, "with_conditional_QB_buffer": 2.4666666666666615, "with_QB_and_adverse_total": 46.96666666666666, "meaning": "Independent total-specific material risk discovery from frozen components; no coefficient or frozen forecast change.", "publication_recheck_utc": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "discovery_provenance": "Retained postfreeze independent desk discovery; original discovery time preserved; no changed frozen means.", "with_QB_and_adverse_buffer": -0.5333333333333385 }, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T16:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" } ], "elapsed": false, "start_utc": "2026-10-09T16:00Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T16:00Z", "status": "pre", "tracking_only": false }, { "event_id": "401868265", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868265", "date": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "36", "fullName": "Tenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Poughkeepsie", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "171", "away_name": "Columbia Lions", "away_score": 0, "home": "2368", "home_name": "Marist Red Foxes", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868265", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.899Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.971Z", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -112, "away_line_price": -111, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -111, "under_price": -111, "home_ml": 104, "away_ml": -130, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true }, "decisions": [ { "event_id": "401868265", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Marist Red Foxes +1.5", "direction": "home", "line": 1.5, "odds": -112, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Hard sample-cap failure: Columbia 3 current games, fixed50% exceeds25%; no live tier in either configuration." ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 15.779999999999998, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": 12.779999999999998, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 16.218333333333334, 30.49833333333333 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 19.218333333333334, 30.49833333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 12.779999999999998, "unstressed_buffer": 15.779999999999998 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 16.71, 30.49833333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 15.28833333333333, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": true, "favorite_survives": true }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868265", "https://gocolumbialions.com/news/2026/10/7/football-wraps-up-non-conference-play-friday-night-at-marist" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.971Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Registered fixed 50% current scoring/margin influence exceeds 25% policy cap for Columbia three-game sample. Arithmetic retained as noncompliant research score; no weight change authorized.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401868265", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "selection": "Over 43.5", "direction": "over", "line": 43.5, "odds": -111, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Hard sample-cap failure: Columbia 3 current games, fixed50% exceeds25%; no live tier in either configuration.", "Base cushion 3.216667 below 4-point OFF floor.", "An applicable availability-plus-adverse case fails the one-point stressed total remainder." ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 3.2166666666666686, "required_buffer": 4, "stressed_buffer": 0.21666666666666856, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 16.218333333333334, 30.49833333333333 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 14.718333333333334, 28.99833333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 0.21666666666666856, "unstressed_buffer": 3.2166666666666686 } ], "opponent_offense": null, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 1, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868265", "https://gocolumbialions.com/news/2026/10/7/football-wraps-up-non-conference-play-friday-night-at-marist" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.971Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Registered fixed 50% current scoring/margin influence exceeds 25% policy cap for Columbia three-game sample. Arithmetic retained as noncompliant research score; no weight change authorized.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": false, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" } ], "elapsed": false, "start_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "status": "pre", "tracking_only": false }, { "event_id": "401898395", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401898395", "date": "2026-10-09T12:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": true, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "4018", "fullName": "Venetian Arena", "indoor": true, "address": null }, "away": "10", "away_name": "Houston Rockets", "away_score": 0, "home": "6", "home_name": "Dallas Mavericks", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": null, "decisions": [], "elapsed": true, "start_utc": "2026-10-09T12:00Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T12:00Z", "status": "STARTED_OR_PAST_EARLIER_LOCK", "tracking_only": true }, { "event_id": "401908940", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401908940", "date": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL" } }, "away": "29", "away_name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "away_score": 0, "home": "4", "home_name": "Chicago Bulls", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908940", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.899Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.977Z", "home_line": -3.5, "away_line": 3.5, "home_line_price": -105, "away_line_price": -115, "total": 239.5, "under_line": 239.5, "over_price": -110, "under_price": -110, "home_ml": -148, "away_ml": 124, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true }, "decisions": [], "elapsed": false, "start_utc": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "status": "pre", "tracking_only": true }, { "event_id": "401918299", "sport": "WNBA", "identity": { "id": "401918299", "date": "2026-10-09T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "WNBA", "venue": { "id": "3559", "fullName": "Barclays Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Brooklyn", "state": "NY" } }, "away": "20", "away_name": "Atlanta Dream", "away_score": 0, "home": "9", "home_name": "New York Liberty", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/wnba/summary?event=401918299", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.899Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.975Z", "home_line": -2.5, "away_line": 2.5, "home_line_price": -115, "away_line_price": -105, "total": 171.5, "under_line": 171.5, "over_price": -110, "under_price": -110, "home_ml": -155, "away_ml": 130, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true }, "decisions": [], "elapsed": false, "start_utc": "2026-10-09T23:30Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T23:30Z", "status": "pre", "tracking_only": true }, { "event_id": "401918300", "sport": "WNBA", "identity": { "id": "401918300", "date": "2026-10-10T01:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "WNBA", "venue": { "id": "4005", "fullName": "Michelob ULTRA Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV" } }, "away": "129689", "away_name": "Golden State Valkyries", "away_score": 0, "home": "17", "home_name": "Las Vegas Aces", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/wnba/summary?event=401918300", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.980Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.039Z", "home_line": -3.5, "away_line": 3.5, "home_line_price": -115, "away_line_price": -105, "total": 156.5, "under_line": 156.5, "over_price": -115, "under_price": -105, "home_ml": -180, "away_ml": 150, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true }, "decisions": [], "elapsed": false, "start_utc": "2026-10-10T01:30Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:30Z", "status": "pre", "tracking_only": true }, { "event_id": "401892465", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892465", "date": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "124292", "away_name": "Seattle Kraken", "away_score": 0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Detroit Red Wings", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892465", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.980Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.037Z", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 170, "away_line_price": -205, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 110, "under_price": -130, "home_ml": -142, "away_ml": 120, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true }, "decisions": [], "elapsed": false, "start_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "status": "pre", "tracking_only": true }, { "event_id": "401892466", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892466", "date": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1823", "fullName": "Capital One Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "13", "away_name": "New York Rangers", "away_score": 0, "home": "23", "home_name": "Washington Capitals", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892466", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.980Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.063Z", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 190, "away_line_price": -230, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -125, "under_price": 105, "home_ml": -142, "away_ml": 120, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true }, "decisions": [], "elapsed": false, "start_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "status": "pre", "tracking_only": true }, { "event_id": "401892467", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892467", "date": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1828", "fullName": "Nationwide Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Columbus", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "16", "away_name": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "away_score": 0, "home": "29", "home_name": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892467", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.980Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.034Z", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 205, "away_line_price": -250, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -105, "under_price": -115, "home_ml": -122, "away_ml": 102, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true }, "decisions": [], "elapsed": false, "start_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "status": "pre", "tracking_only": true }, { "event_id": "401892468", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892468", "date": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1397", "fullName": "Canada Life Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Winnipeg", "state": "MB", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "25", "away_name": "Anaheim Ducks", "away_score": 0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Winnipeg Jets", "home_score": 0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892468", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.980Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.022Z", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 205, "away_line_price": -250, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -102, "under_price": -118, "home_ml": -125, "away_ml": 105, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true }, "decisions": [], "elapsed": false, "start_utc": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "status": "pre", "tracking_only": true } ], "decisions": [ { "event_id": "401858254", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Florida State Seminoles +3.5", "direction": "away", "line": 3.5, "odds": -108, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Base cushion 0.852500 below 3-point OFF floor.", "An applicable availability-plus-adverse or opponent-offense case crosses the spread." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "base_buffer": 0.8524999999999956, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": -2.147500000000008, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 26.5325, 29.180000000000003 ] }, { "name": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 26.5325, 26.180000000000003 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 26.5325, 32.18000000000001 ], "remaining_buffer": -2.147500000000008, "unstressed_buffer": 0.8524999999999956 }, { "name": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 26.5325, 29.180000000000003 ], "remaining_buffer": 0.8524999999999956, "unstressed_buffer": 3.8524999999999956 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 26.5325, 31.188333333333336 ], "remaining_buffer": -1.1558333333333373, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": false, "favorite_survives": false }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858254", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=ACC&sport=Football&conf=ACC&type=report" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.870Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Louisville Keyjuan Brown questionable; -3 inactive branch retained. Kienholz probable expected active; unexpected absence requires new QB review. FSU material Singleton absence uses required -3 human scenario; statistical impact unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": true, "can_reassess_if_selection_survives_both_branches": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": false, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401858254", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "selection": "Under 59.5", "direction": "under", "line": 59.5, "odds": -108, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Base cushion 3.787500 below 4-point OFF floor.", "An applicable availability-plus-adverse case fails the one-point stressed total remainder." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "base_buffer": 3.7874999999999943, "required_buffer": 4, "stressed_buffer": 0.7874999999999943, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 26.5325, 29.180000000000003 ] }, { "name": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 26.5325, 26.180000000000003 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 28.0325, 30.680000000000003 ], "remaining_buffer": 0.7874999999999943, "unstressed_buffer": 3.7874999999999943 }, { "name": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 28.0325, 27.680000000000003 ], "remaining_buffer": 3.7874999999999943, "unstressed_buffer": 6.787499999999994 } ], "opponent_offense": null, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 1, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858254", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=ACC&sport=Football&conf=ACC&type=report" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.870Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Louisville Keyjuan Brown questionable; -3 inactive branch retained. Kienholz probable expected active; unexpected absence requires new QB review. FSU material Singleton absence uses required -3 human scenario; statistical impact unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": true, "can_reassess_if_selection_survives_both_branches": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": false, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401858487", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Iowa Hawkeyes +2.5", "direction": "away", "line": 2.5, "odds": -105, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Actual unresolved Iowa QB branch plus independent adverse stress crosses the selected market; high risk remains.", "An applicable availability-plus-adverse or opponent-offense case crosses the spread.", "Selected projected favorite fails conservative opponent-offense winner test." ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 4.427499999999998, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": -1.5725000000000016, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 24.695, 22.767500000000002 ] }, { "name": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 21.695, 22.767500000000002 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 24.695, 25.767500000000002 ], "remaining_buffer": 1.4274999999999984, "unstressed_buffer": 4.427499999999998 }, { "name": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 21.695, 25.767500000000002 ], "remaining_buffer": -1.5725000000000016, "unstressed_buffer": 1.4274999999999984 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 24.695, 25.196666666666665 ], "remaining_buffer": 1.9983333333333348, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": true, "favorite_survives": false }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858487", "https://hawkeyesports.com/news/2026/10/6/kirk-ferentz-news-conference-transcript-10062026" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.897Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Iowa Hank Brown limited; Hecklinski prepared. Starting-QB availability unresolved. Active and -3 human-only branches retained, but statistical QB effect remains unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED", "can_reassess_if_selection_survives_both_branches": true, "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": false, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401858487", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "selection": "Over 41.5", "direction": "over", "line": 41.5, "odds": -105, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Actual unresolved Iowa QB branch plus independent adverse stress crosses the selected market; high risk remains.", "An applicable availability-plus-adverse case fails the one-point stressed total remainder." ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 5.962500000000006, "required_buffer": 4, "stressed_buffer": -0.037499999999994316, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 24.695, 22.767500000000002 ] }, { "name": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 21.695, 22.767500000000002 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 23.195, 21.267500000000002 ], "remaining_buffer": 2.9625000000000057, "unstressed_buffer": 5.962500000000006 }, { "name": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 20.195, 21.267500000000002 ], "remaining_buffer": -0.037499999999994316, "unstressed_buffer": 2.9625000000000057 } ], "opponent_offense": null, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 1, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858487", "https://hawkeyesports.com/news/2026/10/6/kirk-ferentz-news-conference-transcript-10062026" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.897Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Iowa Hank Brown limited; Hecklinski prepared. Starting-QB availability unresolved. Active and -3 human-only branches retained, but statistical QB effect remains unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED", "can_reassess_if_selection_survives_both_branches": true, "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": false, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401860922", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Washington State Cougars +5.5", "direction": "away", "line": 5.5, "odds": -112, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Known mixed-QB role uncertainty plus stronger frozen USU offense erases more than half the 5.3125-point cushion (2.083333 remains): canonical high-severity threshold. No invented stacked stress required." ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 5.3125, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": 2.083333333333332, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 23.75, 23.9375 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 23.75, 26.9375 ], "remaining_buffer": 2.3125, "unstressed_buffer": 5.3125 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 23.75, 27.166666666666668 ], "remaining_buffer": 2.083333333333332, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": false, "favorite_survives": false }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860922", "https://utahstateaggies.com/story.aspx?file_date=10%2F5%2F2026&filename=football-hosts-washington-state-in-pac-12-home-opener-friday-night", "https://wsucougars.com/news/2026/10/6/washington-state-heads-to-utah-state-for-friday-night-matchup" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.877Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Utah State Hillstead first on depth chart, Brosterhous started last four and both played latest game. Healthy rotation is not injury trigger; mixed-QB opportunity uncertainty remains.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "USU_QB_CHANGE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": false, "branch_gate_note": "Hypothetical future injury branch is not activated by healthy depth displacement; preserve medium mixed-role risk." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401860922", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "selection": "Over 43.5", "direction": "over", "line": 43.5, "odds": -115, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "PASSES predeclared numerical total stress, but newly identified frozen-input current-offense diagnostic erases more than half the cushion. Existing Section5 unresolved high TOTAL-specific risk withholds promotion; this is not a retroactive numerical-gate failure.", "Total assessed independently from side: predeclared three-point adverse total leaves1.1875. Unactivated hypothetical injury branch is not silently treated as current. Mixed healthy QB role plus the new total-specific regime diagnostic is classified high in postfreeze risk review." ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 4.1875, "required_buffer": 4, "stressed_buffer": 1.1875, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 23.75, 23.9375 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 22.25, 22.4375 ], "remaining_buffer": 1.1875, "unstressed_buffer": 4.1875 } ], "opponent_offense": null, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 1, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860922", "https://utahstateaggies.com/story.aspx?file_date=10%2F5%2F2026&filename=football-hosts-washington-state-in-pac-12-home-opener-friday-night", "https://wsucougars.com/news/2026/10/6/washington-state-heads-to-utah-state-for-friday-night-matchup" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.877Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Utah State Hillstead first on depth chart, Brosterhous started last four and both played latest game. Healthy rotation is not injury trigger; mixed-QB opportunity uncertainty remains.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "USU_QB_CHANGE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": false, "branch_gate_note": "Hypothetical future injury branch is not activated by healthy depth displacement; preserve medium mixed-role risk." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "additional_diagnostic": { "predeclared_gate": false, "discovered_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z", "postfreeze_review": true, "unchanged_frozen_means": true, "existing_rule": "Production Standards Section5 high severity: erases more than half modeled edge", "name": "Frozen current USU offense component only", "total": 44.458333333333336, "cushion": 0.9583333333333357, "meaning": "Postprice diagnostic using existing component; not a newly mandatory minimum-total regime stress. Indicates material fragility beyond the registered three-point test.", "publication_recheck_utc": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "discovery_provenance": "Retained postfreeze independent desk discovery; original discovery time preserved; no changed frozen means." }, "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401864519", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Wyoming Cowboys +4.5", "direction": "away", "line": 4.5, "odds": -112, "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE", "tier": "Bonus Pick", "eligible": true, "selected": true, "reasons": [ "Passes frozen base-buffer, separate side/total, availability branch and adverse-case requirements; no unresolved high risk." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 3.5324999999999953, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": 0.5324999999999953, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 22.043333333333333, 23.010833333333338 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 22.043333333333333, 26.010833333333338 ], "remaining_buffer": 0.5324999999999953, "unstressed_buffer": 3.5324999999999953 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 22.043333333333333, 23.68166666666667 ], "remaining_buffer": 2.8616666666666646, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": false, "favorite_survives": false }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864519", "https://gowyo.com/news/2026/10/5/football-cowboys-set-for-showdown-with-spartans-on-friday-night.aspx", "https://sjsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/5/spartans-host-wyoming-on-homecoming-presented-by-rotten-robbie" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.853Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401864519", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "selection": "Over 42.5", "direction": "over", "line": 42.5, "odds": -112, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Base cushion 2.554167 below 4-point OFF floor.", "An applicable availability-plus-adverse case fails the one-point stressed total remainder." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 2.5541666666666742, "required_buffer": 4, "stressed_buffer": -0.44583333333332575, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 22.043333333333333, 23.010833333333338 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 20.543333333333333, 21.510833333333338 ], "remaining_buffer": -0.44583333333332575, "unstressed_buffer": 2.5541666666666742 } ], "opponent_offense": null, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 1, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864519", "https://gowyo.com/news/2026/10/5/football-cowboys-set-for-showdown-with-spartans-on-friday-night.aspx", "https://sjsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/5/spartans-host-wyoming-on-homecoming-presented-by-rotten-robbie" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.853Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": false, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401856826", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Iowa State Cyclones +10.5", "direction": "away", "line": 10.5, "odds": -112, "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE", "tier": "Pick of the Day", "eligible": true, "selected": true, "reasons": [ "Passes frozen base-buffer, separate side/total, availability branch and adverse-case requirements; no unresolved high risk." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "base_buffer": 4.677115384615387, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": 1.6771153846153872, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 27.76224358974359 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 30.76224358974359 ], "remaining_buffer": 1.6771153846153872, "unstressed_buffer": 4.677115384615387 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 29.35230769230769 ], "remaining_buffer": 3.087051282051288, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": false, "favorite_survives": false }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856826", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=B12&sport=Football&conf=B12&type=report", "https://byucougars.com/news/2026/10/5/byu-football-game-week-2026-iowa-state" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.851Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "BYU lead back Martin OUT; -3 human-only overlay applied with Moa overlap review. Statistical replacement effect and listed defensive absences unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "BYU_JOINT", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": false, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T02:15Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401856826", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "selection": "Over 46.5", "direction": "over", "line": 46.5, "odds": -108, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Base cushion 3.201603 below 4-point OFF floor.", "An applicable availability-plus-adverse case fails the one-point stressed total remainder." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "base_buffer": 3.201602564102572, "required_buffer": 4, "stressed_buffer": 0.20160256410257205, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 27.76224358974359 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 20.439358974358978, 26.26224358974359 ], "remaining_buffer": 0.20160256410257205, "unstressed_buffer": 3.201602564102572 } ], "opponent_offense": null, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 1, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856826", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=B12&sport=Football&conf=B12&type=report", "https://byucougars.com/news/2026/10/5/byu-football-game-week-2026-iowa-state" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.851Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "BYU lead back Martin OUT; -3 human-only overlay applied with Moa overlap review. Statistical replacement effect and listed defensive absences unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "BYU_JOINT", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": false, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": false, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T02:15Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401868329", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Alabama State Hornets -14.5", "direction": "home", "line": -14.5, "odds": -102, "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE", "tier": "Free Pick", "eligible": true, "selected": true, "reasons": [ "Passes frozen base-buffer, separate side/total, availability branch and adverse-case requirements; no unresolved high risk.", "Two unresolved medium risks: at least one-tier downgrade; retained implementation restricts promotion to Free Pick." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "base_buffer": 13.9925, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": 7.9925, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 13.868333333333332, 42.36083333333333 ] }, { "name": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "pair": [ 13.868333333333332, 39.36083333333333 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 16.868333333333332, 42.36083333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 10.9925, "unstressed_buffer": 13.9925 }, { "name": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 16.868333333333332, 39.36083333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 7.9925, "unstressed_buffer": 10.9925 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 16.835, 42.36083333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 11.025833333333331, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": true, "favorite_survives": true }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868329", "https://famuathletics.com/news/2026/10/8/football-florida-am-heads-to-montgomery-for-swac-matchup-with-alabama-state.aspx", "https://bamastatesports.com/sports/football/roster/aaron-frye/9479" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.978Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Alabama State Frye started last two; Body availability/reason not established. No inferred injury deduction; -3 conditional branch retained.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": false, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Official NWS 15 mph wind with rain chance rising to 42%; unresolved weather sensitivity", "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T16:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401868329", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "selection": "Over 47.5", "direction": "over", "line": 47.5, "odds": -102, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Passes registered numerical total stress at current 47.5, but retained independent total-specific risk remains: frozen current-offense plus conditional QB total 49.966667 leaves only 2.466667; more than half the conditional cushion is erased, and the additional diagnostic with three-point adverse swing reaches 46.966667. Existing Section 5 high-risk withholding, not retroactive numerical-gate failure. Weather risk remains.", "Two unresolved medium risks: at least one-tier downgrade; retained implementation restricts promotion to Free Pick." ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "base_buffer": 8.729166666666664, "required_buffer": 4, "stressed_buffer": 2.7291666666666643, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 13.868333333333332, 42.36083333333333 ] }, { "name": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "pair": [ 13.868333333333332, 39.36083333333333 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 12.368333333333332, 40.86083333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 5.729166666666664, "unstressed_buffer": 8.729166666666664 }, { "name": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 12.368333333333332, 37.86083333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 2.7291666666666643, "unstressed_buffer": 5.729166666666664 } ], "opponent_offense": null, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 1, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868329", "https://famuathletics.com/news/2026/10/8/football-florida-am-heads-to-montgomery-for-swac-matchup-with-alabama-state.aspx", "https://bamastatesports.com/sports/football/roster/aaron-frye/9479" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.978Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Alabama State Frye started last two; Body availability/reason not established. No inferred injury deduction; -3 conditional branch retained.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": false, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Official NWS 15 mph wind with rain chance rising to 42%; unresolved weather sensitivity", "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "additional_diagnostic": { "discovered_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z", "postfreeze_review": true, "predeclared_gate": false, "unchanged_frozen_means": true, "source": "postprice-tu-second-review.json", "current_offense_home": 39.09833333333333, "with_conditional_QB_total": 49.96666666666666, "with_conditional_QB_buffer": 2.4666666666666615, "with_QB_and_adverse_total": 46.96666666666666, "meaning": "Independent total-specific material risk discovery from frozen components; no coefficient or frozen forecast change.", "publication_recheck_utc": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "discovery_provenance": "Retained postfreeze independent desk discovery; original discovery time preserved; no changed frozen means.", "with_QB_and_adverse_buffer": -0.5333333333333385 }, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T16:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401868265", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Marist Red Foxes +1.5", "direction": "home", "line": 1.5, "odds": -112, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Hard sample-cap failure: Columbia 3 current games, fixed50% exceeds25%; no live tier in either configuration." ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 15.779999999999998, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": 12.779999999999998, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 16.218333333333334, 30.49833333333333 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 19.218333333333334, 30.49833333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 12.779999999999998, "unstressed_buffer": 15.779999999999998 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 16.71, 30.49833333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 15.28833333333333, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": true, "favorite_survives": true }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868265", "https://gocolumbialions.com/news/2026/10/7/football-wraps-up-non-conference-play-friday-night-at-marist" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.971Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Registered fixed 50% current scoring/margin influence exceeds 25% policy cap for Columbia three-game sample. Arithmetic retained as noncompliant research score; no weight change authorized.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401868265", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "selection": "Over 43.5", "direction": "over", "line": 43.5, "odds": -111, "state": "LEAN", "tier": null, "eligible": false, "selected": false, "reasons": [ "Hard sample-cap failure: Columbia 3 current games, fixed50% exceeds25%; no live tier in either configuration.", "Base cushion 3.216667 below 4-point OFF floor.", "An applicable availability-plus-adverse case fails the one-point stressed total remainder." ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 3.2166666666666686, "required_buffer": 4, "stressed_buffer": 0.21666666666666856, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 16.218333333333334, 30.49833333333333 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total", "pair": [ 14.718333333333334, 28.99833333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 0.21666666666666856, "unstressed_buffer": 3.2166666666666686 } ], "opponent_offense": null, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 1, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868265", "https://gocolumbialions.com/news/2026/10/7/football-wraps-up-non-conference-play-friday-night-at-marist" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.971Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Registered fixed 50% current scoring/margin influence exceeds 25% policy cap for Columbia three-game sample. Arithmetic retained as noncompliant research score; no weight change authorized.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": false, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" } ], "selected_picks": [ { "event_id": "401864519", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Wyoming Cowboys +4.5", "direction": "away", "line": 4.5, "odds": -112, "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE", "tier": "Bonus Pick", "eligible": true, "selected": true, "reasons": [ "Passes frozen base-buffer, separate side/total, availability branch and adverse-case requirements; no unresolved high risk." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "base_buffer": 3.5324999999999953, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": 0.5324999999999953, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 22.043333333333333, 23.010833333333338 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 22.043333333333333, 26.010833333333338 ], "remaining_buffer": 0.5324999999999953, "unstressed_buffer": 3.5324999999999953 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 22.043333333333333, 23.68166666666667 ], "remaining_buffer": 2.8616666666666646, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": false, "favorite_survives": false }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864519", "https://gowyo.com/news/2026/10/5/football-cowboys-set-for-showdown-with-spartans-on-friday-night.aspx", "https://sjsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/5/spartans-host-wyoming-on-homecoming-presented-by-rotten-robbie" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.853Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401856826", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Iowa State Cyclones +10.5", "direction": "away", "line": 10.5, "odds": -112, "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE", "tier": "Pick of the Day", "eligible": true, "selected": true, "reasons": [ "Passes frozen base-buffer, separate side/total, availability branch and adverse-case requirements; no unresolved high risk." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "base_buffer": 4.677115384615387, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": 1.6771153846153872, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 27.76224358974359 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 30.76224358974359 ], "remaining_buffer": 1.6771153846153872, "unstressed_buffer": 4.677115384615387 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 29.35230769230769 ], "remaining_buffer": 3.087051282051288, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": false, "favorite_survives": false }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856826", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=B12&sport=Football&conf=B12&type=report", "https://byucougars.com/news/2026/10/5/byu-football-game-week-2026-iowa-state" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.851Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "BYU lead back Martin OUT; -3 human-only overlay applied with Moa overlap review. Statistical replacement effect and listed defensive absences unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "BYU_JOINT", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": false, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-10T02:15Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" }, { "event_id": "401868329", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": "Alabama State Hornets -14.5", "direction": "home", "line": -14.5, "odds": -102, "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE", "tier": "Free Pick", "eligible": true, "selected": true, "reasons": [ "Passes frozen base-buffer, separate side/total, availability branch and adverse-case requirements; no unresolved high risk.", "Two unresolved medium risks: at least one-tier downgrade; retained implementation restricts promotion to Free Pick." ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "base_buffer": 13.9925, "required_buffer": 3, "stressed_buffer": 7.9925, "stress": { "availability_pairs": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast", "pair": [ 13.868333333333332, 42.36083333333333 ] }, { "name": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "pair": [ 13.868333333333332, 39.36083333333333 ] } ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 16.868333333333332, 42.36083333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 10.9925, "unstressed_buffer": 13.9925 }, { "name": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL plus independent three-point adverse spread", "pair": [ 16.868333333333332, 39.36083333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 7.9925, "unstressed_buffer": 10.9925 } ], "opponent_offense": { "name": "Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent", "pair": [ 16.835, 42.36083333333333 ], "remaining_buffer": 11.025833333333331, "method": "Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.", "selected_side_is_projected_favorite": true, "favorite_survives": true }, "minimum_stressed_buffer": 0, "opponent_and_generic_cases": "Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868329", "https://famuathletics.com/news/2026/10/8/football-florida-am-heads-to-montgomery-for-swac-matchup-with-alabama-state.aspx", "https://bamastatesports.com/sports/football/roster/aaron-frye/9479" ], "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:16.978Z", "final_check_time": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "availability_check": "Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.", "risk_notes": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Alabama State Frye started last two; Body availability/reason not established. No inferred injury deduction; -3 conditional branch retained.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": false, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Official NWS 15 mph wind with rain chance rising to 42%; unresolved weather sensitivity", "hard_gate": false } ], "probability": null, "scope": "USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON", "numerical_gate_pass": true, "publication_deadline_utc": "2026-10-09T16:00Z", "pregame_at_review": true, "prior_review_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z" } ], "price_changes": [ { "event_id": "401868329", "field": "total", "previous": 48.5, "current": 47.5 }, { "event_id": "401868329", "field": "over_price", "previous": -103, "current": -102 }, { "event_id": "401868329", "field": "under_price", "previous": -120, "current": -122 }, { "event_id": "401918299", "field": "total", "previous": 172.5, "current": 171.5 } ], "official_availability": { "created_utc": "2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z", "material_change_found": false, "means_changed": false, "sources": [ { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=B12&sport=Football&conf=B12&type=report", "final_url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=B12&sport=Football&conf=B12&type=report", "status": 200, "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.064Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.236Z", "file": "big12-report.html", "sha256": "e0cb500976d3dbec569f80806509869ac7adc72d9ad11d85cb6047b751c1fd4a" }, { "url": "https://byucougars.com/news/2026/10/5/byu-football-game-week-2026-iowa-state", "final_url": "https://byucougars.com/news/2026/10/5/byu-football-game-week-2026-iowa-state", "status": 200, "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.065Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.425Z", "file": "byu-preview.html", "sha256": "8dad53690cdf27bf41d121c783d685b8ea407c005139de52bafdf7db4682a99e" }, { "url": "https://sjsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/5/spartans-host-wyoming-on-homecoming-presented-by-rotten-robbie", "final_url": "https://sjsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/5/spartans-host-wyoming-on-homecoming-presented-by-rotten-robbie", "status": 200, "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.066Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.501Z", "file": "sjsu-preview.html", "sha256": "2e0f5b99ae0fd78946382272a81a2b17610abe3f57425e11ecd1dfc8c2e0a969" }, { "url": "https://gowyo.com/news/2026/10/5/football-cowboys-set-for-showdown-with-spartans-on-friday-night.aspx", "final_url": "https://gowyo.com/news/2026/10/5/football-cowboys-set-for-showdown-with-spartans-on-friday-night.aspx", "status": 200, "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.066Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.720Z", "file": "wyoming-preview.html", "sha256": "7db416abb63c26d0fad0ab6e58ccc87dd8fe1eb078fcc9a49bb3e27fb0d14670" }, { "url": "https://bamastatesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026?grid=true", "final_url": "https://bamastatesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026?grid=true", "status": 200, "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.722Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:18.131Z", "file": "asu-schedule.html", "sha256": "40d39c7ed684d7c7e7c5f072e72ec9b1ecdd0d4e002e93c9e324364d769575fd" }, { "url": "https://bamastatesports.com/sports/football/roster/aaron-frye/9479", "final_url": "https://bamastatesports.com/sports/football/roster/aaron-frye/9479", "status": 200, "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.723Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:18.153Z", "file": "asu-frye.html", "sha256": "bbbb447ca2e17d5044f86291269d12b2fa94eb58cde46ab93181e375162e6821" }, { "url": "https://famuathletics.com/news/2026/10/8/football-florida-am-heads-to-montgomery-for-swac-matchup-with-alabama-state.aspx", "final_url": "https://famuathletics.com/news/2026/10/8/football-florida-am-heads-to-montgomery-for-swac-matchup-with-alabama-state.aspx", "status": 200, "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.721Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:18.173Z", "file": "famu-preview.html", "sha256": "5e47ce0c04a82ad084a580f97ca2cd0ac991cc626c4818f27be4d2874a55555b" }, { "url": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BMX/81,35/forecast/hourly", "final_url": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BMX/81,35/forecast/hourly", "status": 200, "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:17.723Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:39:18.446Z", "file": "asu-weather.json", "sha256": "1b064ceec3ba31ba9c399d6d96d40d8bc07936872d1682e497647b62f7d097d7" }, { "file": "big12-official-public.json", "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/api/get-publish-public", "public_report_url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=B12&sport=Football&conf=B12&type=report", "request": { "sport": "Football", "organization": "B12", "conference": "B12" }, "status": 200, "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:40:40.858Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:40:41.121Z", "sha256": "81d742e2c03ce781bc5ffbc4ad639ecee653260a3a2139de36a62276f19c598f" } ], "big12_report": [ { "id": "3058", "event_date": "2026-10-09", "event_local_time": "21:15:00", "publish_date": "2026-10-08", "posted_local_time": "21:00:00", "conference_timezone": "CT", "teams": [ { "name": "Iowa State", "rows": [ { "exemptStatus": "NonExempt", "name": "S #6 Drew Surges", "status": "Out" }, { "exemptStatus": "NonExempt", "name": "LB #41 Rylan Barnes", "status": "Out" }, { "exemptStatus": "NonExempt", "name": "TE #88 Christian Greenlaw", "status": "Probable" }, { "exemptStatus": "NonExempt", "name": "DE #92 Caden Crawford", "status": "Out" }, { "exemptStatus": "NonExempt", "name": "DT #95 Ka'Mori Moore", "status": "Out" } ] }, { "name": "BYU", "rows": [ { "exemptStatus": "NonExempt", "name": "S #3 Raider Damuni", "status": "Out" }, { "exemptStatus": "NonExempt", "name": "RB #4 LJ Martin", "status": "Out" }, { "exemptStatus": "NonExempt", "name": "LB #16 Isaiah Glasker", "status": "Out" }, { "exemptStatus": "NonExempt", "name": "RB #30 Sione Moa", "status": "Out" }, { "exemptStatus": "NonExempt", "name": "CB #32 Cannon DeVries", "status": "Doubtful" } ] } ] } ], "candidate_findings": [ { "event_id": "401856826", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "finding": "Fresh official public report still has BYU LJ Martin and Sione Moa Out, Damuni and Glasker Out, DeVries Doubtful. Published October 8 report remains latest returned at October 9 refresh. Frozen joint -3 overlay and replacement uncertainty remain applicable; no duplicate Moa deduction." }, { "event_id": "401864519", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "finding": "Both official game-week previews refreshed. Wyoming normalized preview matches earlier reviewed text exactly. No new material absence established in the reviewed sources; this does not claim a final inactive list." }, { "event_id": "401868329", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "finding": "Official FAMU preview and ASU roster/schedule refreshed. Frye started last two, Body first three; cause of switch remains unestablished. Conditional -3 branch retained. Refreshed NWS still has 15 mph wind and afternoon rain risk. Two medium risks remain, limiting side to Free Pick." } ], "limitations": "Bounded refresh of existing official candidate sources, not universal final-inactive certification. No change discovered in these sources. Other football games remain withheld using retained same-day evidence; no newly promoted candidate outside the three reviewed spreads." }, "root_adjudication": { "received_utc": "2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z", "scope": "Explicit root adjudication after independent desk reconciliation", "decision": "Withhold WSU-USU Over43.5 as LEAN even though predeclared numerical gate passes. New frozen-input regime diagnostic exposes unresolved high total-specific risk under existing Section5; do not call MIN branch a predeclared stress, alter means, or overwrite freeze. Retain OFF ISU POD, Wyoming Bonus, ASU Free; ON zero.", "means_changed": false, "edition_authorization": "Original OFF comparison picks may now be released in this user-authorized standalone OFF edition; global default does not change.", "preserved_total_withholding": "WSU/USU and FAMU/ASU totals remain LEAN for market-specific unresolved high risk. Both pass registered numerical gates. Additional diagnostic remains explicitly postfreeze risk review, not a retroactive mandatory numerical stress." }, "release_conditions": "Picks approved only at the exact recorded lines and odds, before earliest recorded game start. Any material official availability change or price change affecting gates requires re-review against immutable freeze; no silent score change.", "risk_resolution": "Known actual conditional QB/RB branches are stressed in addition to the human overlay. Side and total conclusions are independent. A probability distribution is not required by documented football spread/total point-buffer policy; moneyline stays unavailable.", "confidence_and_stake": "No invented probability, confidence percentage, or stake. Moneylines remain unavailable without calibrated probability.", "validation": { "game_count": 15, "paired_pregame_quote_count": 14, "OFF_market_decisions": 14, "selected_count": 3, "all_selected_prestart": true, "all_selected_pass_numerical_gate": true, "all_selected_high_risks_zero": true, "immutable_forecast_hash_matches": true } }