October 15, 2026 · Four-model Sports editionClassic, Primary, Tighten Up Conservative ON and OFF are shown separately. The published selection board uses Tighten Up OFF. ON/OFF share scoring arithmetic; four configurations contain three score engines. NBA and NHL remain tracking-only. No model probability is calibrated.
Compare all four models · Methods and limitations · Results tracker
October 14, 2026 · Four-model Sports editionClassic, Primary, Tighten Up Conservative ON and OFF are shown separately. The published selection board uses Tighten Up OFF. ON/OFF share scoring arithmetic; four configurations contain three score engines. NBA and NHL remain tracking-only. No model probability is calibrated.
Compare all four models · Methods and limitations · Results tracker
October 13, 2026 · Four-model Sports editionClassic, Primary, Tighten Up Conservative ON and OFF are shown separately. The published selection board uses Tighten Up OFF. ON/OFF share scoring arithmetic; four configurations contain three score engines. NBA and NHL remain tracking-only. No model probability is calibrated.
Compare all four models · Methods and limitations · Results tracker
October 12, 2026 · Four-model Sports editionClassic, Primary, Tighten Up Conservative ON and OFF are shown separately. The published selection board uses Tighten Up OFF. ON/OFF share scoring arithmetic; four configurations contain three score engines. NBA and NHL remain tracking-only. London–Portland is a cross-league exhibition: Classic and Tighten Up lack comparable London history; Primary’s zero-team-effect fallback is audit-only. No model probability is calibrated.
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October 11, 2026 · Four-model Sports editionClassic, Primary, Tighten Up Conservative ON and OFF are shown separately. The published selection board uses Tighten Up OFF. ON/OFF share scoring arithmetic; four configurations contain three score engines. NBA and NHL remain tracking-only. MLS has no registered scoring engine. Dallas–Houston started before this retry and receives no new pregame forecast.
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October 10, 2026 · Four-model Sports editionClassic, Primary, Tighten Up Conservative ON and OFF are shown separately. The published selection board uses Tighten Up OFF. ON/OFF share scoring arithmetic; four configurations contain three score engines. NBA and NHL remain tracking-only. MLS and UFC have no registered scoring engine.
Compare all four models · Methods and limitations · Results tracker
Tighten Up Conservative OFF · October 9, 2026This edition uses the registered Tighten Up score engine and normal OFF selection rules. High-risk exclusions, replacement reviews and tracking-only restrictions still apply. Basketball and hockey remain PASS / NOT LIVE. Scores are projected means; no calibrated wagering-confidence percentage or stake is assigned.
Model and selection rules · Forecast and decision ledger
Methodology
Transparent, recorded, and graded.
Each report records the schedule, start time, published market snapshot, availability and reasoning before the event begins. A selected wager also records its market and estimated confidence. If the evidence does not support an independent probability or score range, those fields are explicitly not assigned and the decision is PASS. Every dated report includes the seven-mode appendix: Parker Fields, Uncle Sibursam, Gideon Marsh, ConstitutionOwl, Polly Ticks, Liberty Belle, and Warren Bullion.
NFL, NCAA Division I football, NBA, college basketball, and WNBA selections are calculated from spread and total markets only. MLB, NHL, and soccer begin with the moneyline unless a spread or total produces the stronger approved confidence case. The Tracker retains spread, total, and moneyline fields for auditability even when a market is not eligible for selection.
Log colors follow the numeric confidence bands shown in the tracker; they do not assign wagering tiers. A PASS without an assigned probability uses the unchanged blue-gray row. Every completed prior matchup is reconciled before the next daily board is released. Forecasts are informational, not guarantees or wagering advice.
The October 9 edition uses the user-approved Primary 2.0 point-score engine. Its baseline and separately labeled football replacement sensitivities are retained; no calibrated selected-market or exact-score probability is assigned. NBA and NHL remain tracking-only. Independent personnel, schedule, weather and arithmetic reviews precede the forecast freeze; current prices were captured afterward. Earlier price exposure is disclosed. Historical published percentages remain preserved; they are model estimates, not verified accuracy. Read the current edition policy. Base and adjusted decision audit.
The inherited tracker uses confidence-weighted units. It is not an odds-adjusted cash-profit record. PASS, cancellation and pending entries do not enter finalized wager totals.
October 5 NFL final quantitative edition
This edition applies the latest NFL research inputs: current-season performance, opponent matchup, role and usage, official availability, game setting, and a current-price screen. A −400-or-shorter price is excluded from consideration. The saved NFL calibration audit did not validate numerical confidence percentages for publication. For this user-directed final snapshot, main-market confidence scores are published with a clear calibration limitation and responsible-wagering language.